The pattern of "going in South and out North" of maize circulation needs to be formed

Introduction: under the double pressure of China's grain supply and demand changes in recent years and the management of corn import quota after China's accession to the WTO, the northeast corn market in the south is not smooth Experts predict that "entering from the south to the north" will replace "transporting grain from the north to the South" and become the "mainstream" pattern of grain circulation in China However, all kinds of signs show that although the pattern of "grain transportation from north to South" which has been running for many years has begun to be broken, the formal formation of the pattern of "grain transportation from south to North" has yet to take place The old pattern of grain circulation in China is "North Grain transported to the South" This trend is more obvious in the variety of corn: the corn output in the north of the Yangtze River accounts for about 77% of the total national output, while the sales volume only accounts for 50% of the total national output; the corn output in the south of the Yangtze River only accounts for 23% of the total national corn output, and half of the grain demand must be met by "North Grain transported to the South" With the change of grain supply and demand in China, the area of corn in the southern region has been increasing in the adjustment of planting structure In addition, the high-quality and low-cost corn from abroad "covets" the southern market of China The "southbound road" of northeast corn, which has large moisture content and high planting and transportation costs, is becoming more and more difficult Wang Jian, director of Agricultural Office of Changchun Municipal Committee, said that in the past, southern customers came to compete for corn every purchase season, but few customers came to purchase corn since last winter Although last year Jilin Province was only a year of deficit (grain output was 19.5 billion kg), at present, the province's grain inventory has reached a record high of 39 billion kg Heilongjiang and Liaoning also have a large number of grain "sleeping" warehouses "Price hanging upside down is an important reason for the difficulty of corn export in Northeast China." Shen Qidi, director of the general office of Jilin Grain Bureau, said that at present, the grain market in 8 southern provinces and cities has been liberalized, and the local grain price has fallen However, the northeast still implements the purchase price according to the national requirements, which is generally 0.10 yuan higher than the price in the southern market, and 30% higher than the international market price In this way, the grain consumption intention of southern provinces and cities began to "transfer from inside to outside" After the "North Grain South transportation" was blocked, in order to reduce the pressure of grain inventory in Northeast China, Jilin grain group established grain import and export company authorized by the state in 1999, which can directly engage in grain export With the support of the national corn export subsidy (368 yuan per ton), the company's export business volume has been increasing in recent years Last year, the company exported 3 million tons of corn in Jilin Province, and exported 500000 tons as an agent for other provinces in Northeast China, accounting for nearly 70% of the country's total export volume According to Jiang Jianhua, vice chairman of Jiliang group, the market price of corn in China is significantly higher than that in the world Since this year, according to the relevant rules of WTO, northeast corn has to cancel the direct export subsidies in the circulation field At present, the export business activities between the company and foreign investors have stopped At the same time, since this year, the door of China's corn import quota (more than 5 million tons) has been opened Although it may not be fully realized, it can be seen that in the future, northeast corn may fall into the awkward situation of "blocked transportation in the South and blocked transportation in the north" But most people in the industry still think that it is only a matter of time before the new pattern of "going north and going south" is formed Niu Guotai, director of the Grain Bureau of Jilin Province, said that northeast corn has geographical advantages in the surrounding markets of Asia It is close to grain importing countries such as South Korea, North Korea, Southeast Asia and Japan Compared with large ships of intercontinental transportation in the United States, Argentina and other countries, these countries have the advantages of small ship shipment, flexibility and convenience In addition to market, price and other factors, the evolution and final "freeze frame" of grain circulation pattern are largely affected by policies Yang Qingcai, vice governor of Jilin Province, believes that "going south and going north" will be a reasonable distribution pattern, no matter from the perspective of market or policy First, increasing the proportion of imported corn with high quality and low price in the southern market, and expanding the export of Northeast China by relying on geographical and non GMO advantages are in line with the law of market economy; second, after the elimination of export subsidies, Northeast China can use the "yellow box policy" of the WTO, as well as the methods such as changing the Yumi subsidies from the circulation field to the production field, to launch a new corn export policy as soon as possible At present, the relevant departments of the state and Jilin Province are stepping up the formulation of measures to promote the export of corn, which shows that the final formation of China's grain "going south and going north" is yet to come into being.