The pace of China's corn export exceeds that predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture

Introduction: China's corn supply is sufficient, and domestic demand may be adversely affected by avian influenza, which helps China's corn export in 2005 / 06 exceed the current U.S Department of agriculture forecast According to the prediction of the U.S Department of agriculture in November, China's corn export target for 2005 / 06 is 3 million tons, less than 40% of the 7.59 million tons of exports in the previous year If this export forecast becomes a reality, it will also be the lowest since 1996 By contrast, China's corn export reached an average of 6.97 million tons in the 10 years to 2004 / 05 However, based on the current pace of China's corn export sales, the actual export volume is likely to exceed the forecast target of the U.S Department of agriculture This is mainly related to the favorable price difference of corn in China Despite the record corn supply in the United States in 2005 / 06, and the continuous record low price of Chicago corn futures, the decline of corn futures was partially offset by the fact that American growers were reluctant to sell, which set the basis price of the US Gulf to a high of more than 10 years In the past few weeks, the CNF price of Chinese corn to South Korea has been around us $131 to US $133, which is about US $3 to US $6 lower than the CNF price of US corn According to the incomplete statistics of Derun Lin, one seventh of the time has passed since 2005 / 06 The total export sales of corn in China has reached 1.2 million tons or higher, accounting for 40% of the annual export target of the U.S Department of agriculture In contrast, the export sales volume of corn in China accounted for less than 1% of the total export volume in the same period last year So far, the government has not issued a new quota for corn export There are rumors that the government may agree to export 4 million tons of corn between October and February next year, but this rumor has not been confirmed by any official In fact, from the experience of previous years, the export quota of corn in the new year will not be released until after the Spring Festival In recent years, China's corn export fluctuates greatly, and the export plan is closely related to the corn production scale of that year In general, if high domestic corn production results in significant pressure on domestic prices, the government will tend to increase financial support for exports Judging from the corn supply in 2005 / 06, there is no sign that the corn output this year will be significantly lower than that of last year At present, the prediction values of some foreign analysis institutions are concentrated in 125-126 million tons, while the prediction values of domestic analysis institutions are usually in 129-131 million tons At the same time, considering the severe situation of avian influenza in China this year, the government data shows that 20 million chickens and poultry have been killed in China, accounting for about 1.4% of the total domestic poultry If the epidemic cannot be fundamentally controlled in the near future, it is likely to curb the demand for corn in domestic feed breeding industry, and also limit the domestic corn price in China And push China's corn export pace higher than previously expected