The overall supply shows a downward trend The short-term PVC market is prone to rise and fall

From the perspective of calcium carbide, the main raw material of PVC, the Wuhai calcium carbide market in Mongolia has been on the rise since the end of October
.
As of November 30, the mainstream ex-factory price of calcium carbide in Wuhai area has been raised by 950 yuan to 3600 yuan, reaching the highest point in recent years, which strongly supports the cost of PVC
.

The recent rise in calcium carbide prices is mainly due to
the tight supply of major producing areas.
In the main producing areas of calcium carbide, Mongolia's Wuhai and the Ukrainian League area have been cut off for the past one month, especially in the Ukrainian League area, the power limit is 30%, resulting in a decrease
in calcium carbide production.
At the same time, due to the increase in the load of PVC equipment in Dongxing in Inner Mongolia Yidong Dongxing in November, the export of calcium carbide decreased, and the market circulation supply became increasingly tight
.
Affected by the epidemic in Xinjiang, the transportation of white ash has been blocked, and the production of calcium carbide enterprises has also been restricted to a certain extent
.
Ningxia has also been affected by power rationing and energy-saving and emission-reduction inspections recently, and some enterprises have reduced production
.
The tight supply in the main producing areas, while the recent obstruction of road transportation in the northeast and northwest due to snowfall, has also aggravated the tight supply of calcium carbide, and it is expected that the short-term calcium carbide price will remain high, bringing some support
to the PVC market.

At present, most PVC enterprise products remain in a pre-sale state, and social inventory continues to degrade, especially in November, the sharp destocking led to a relatively tight
supply of PVC market supply.
From a sub-regional point of view, South China has very little spot since October, and most traders have pre-sold goods, and have already pre-sold the source from December to January next year; Some sources in East China are pre-sold, and traders mostly pre-sell goods after a week or two
.
Overall, the total PVC sample inventory in East China and South China is lower than last year, and the market spot is particularly tight
.
At the same time, because the upstream factories are also increasing prices, traders have higher restocking costs, so the selling sentiment is more obvious, and the price has been rising
.

In terms of inventory, as of November 23, the domestic PVC social inventory decreased by 50.
4%
compared with October.
Among them, East China fell to 83,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.
35%; South China dropped to 16,600 tons
.
Inventories by manufacturers decreased, while pre-sale orders continued to increase
.
According to the data, the pre-sale orders of PVC manufacturers in the week of November 19 increased sharply by about 61,400 tons
month-on-month.
Among them, Xinjiang Tianye increased by about 16,000 tons, and the pre-sale orders of Sichuan Yibin Tianyuan and Sichuan Jinlu were also more than
10,000 tons.

In December, PVC enterprises of external calcium carbide mining are still affected by the shortage of raw materials, and the operating rate is expected to fall by 20%~50%, and the supply of calcium carbide PVC in the eastern market will decrease
.
At the same time, production enterprises are ready to deliver the source of goods, and the source of PVC spot goods may be more tight
.

In November, the domestic PVC downstream products market remained good overall, but the continued high PVC prices aggravated
the losses of downstream factories.
Near the end of the month, the early raw material inventory of some large pipe profile enterprises was basically exhausted, and there was a certain reduction in production due to high cost pressure
.
At the same time, the price of plasticizers continued to rise in November, which to a certain extent increased the cost burden of plastic products enterprises, so at present, downstream factories are more resistant to high-priced raw materials, and only maintain just need to purchase
.

In November, although some small downstream enterprises in the northwest and northeast regions stopped work or reduced load due to cold weather, the demand in the southern market was better, so PVC demand did not decrease in November, and the market fundamentals have been performing better
.
In terms of trading volume, the daily spot supply of some PVC traders is limited, and the trading index remains at a high level in the same period, which is expected to support the PVC market on the demand side
.