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In the last week before the holiday, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 37820 yuan / ton, dragged down by London copper, Shanghai copper bulls closed out of the market, Shanghai copper three consecutive negative open low and low, intraday low 37250 yuan / ton, and then under the boost of crude oil, relying on the short closing of the position to drive, the upper attack on the upper rail of Bollinger Road 37960 yuan / ton after the contraction declined, and then based on the 10-day line narrow range shock
。 From the perspective of the plate, the long lower shadow and long upper shadow of the continuous closing reflect the dilemma of Shanghai copper, the maximum amplitude is only 1.
7%, the main force reduced the position by 34,000 hands to 135,000 hands, the main position has completed the month, the total position of the Shanghai copper index decreased by more than 20,000 lots, copper market investors before the holiday to close positions and hedge, the trading volume decreased by 185,000 hands to 1.
3 million hands
.
In terms of the external market, in the last week before the holiday, LME copper stocks continued to increase by 22,300 tons to 379175 tons, refreshing a new high in inventory in the past three years, and the bears at the beginning of the week followed the trend, Lun copper launched a round of pullback, from the highest point of 4865 US dollars / ton shock fall, successively broke through the 5, 10-day moving average, low 4770.
5 US dollars / ton, supported by the 60-day moving average to repair part of the decline, and then jumped high under the drive of crude oil, but the bulls closed their positions, did not take advantage of the victory to pursue, London copper relies on the 10-day line, It fluctuated
around the 5-day line at $4830/ton.
The trend of London copper during the week first fell and then rose, the volatility of the shock intensified, the maximum amplitude was 1.
94%, the position volume was reduced to 326,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased by about 22,000 lots to more than 50,000 lots
.
On the macro front, recently, OPEC informal talks reached the first production limit agreement in eight years, which was implemented in November this year, which caused crude oil prices to soar, with U.
S.
oil soaring 4.
71% yesterday and Brent oil rising as much as 5.
24%.
The strong rise in crude oil prices also provided some support
to copper prices.
In terms of the market, at the beginning of the week because of the decline in the market, traders speculated and actively bought, and downstream companies also increased their efforts to buy goods at the bottom, the reported source of goods was quickly digested by the market, spot premium in the downstream buying driven by the climb, although the Shanghai copper rebounded after the week, but the buying sentiment is still strong, so that the premium is still strong, the premium from 90-120 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week all the way up to 140-190 yuan / ton, as the festival approaches, holders have joined the cash exchange team, the overall supply and demand are booming, the transaction is active, The pre-holiday stocking characteristics are obvious
.
However, with the downstream procurement for several days in the week, the stocking was close to completion at the end of the weekend and month, and the high premium on the last trading day fell back to around
100 yuan.
In terms of news, domestic smelting enterprises basically completed maintenance in August, and refined copper output is expected to further rise
.
According to the survey statistics of Zhuochuang Information, the operating rate of 29 smelters with a total production capacity of 8.
6 million tons was 83.
5%, an increase of 0.
7%
month-on-month.
At the same time, refined copper imports in August will continue to grow under the support of the Shanghai price ratio, and the pattern of excess supply has not changed
when the demand side has not been opened.
At present, although the copper market is active before the holiday, the entire oversupply pattern of copper has not changed, downstream demand is not expected to have an explosive rebound, the overall weak pattern of copper prices has not changed, and there is still room for continued
bearishness at the end of the year.