The overall pattern of the copper market has not changed, and the short-term is still dominated by weak shocks

In terms of A-shares, the non-ferrous sector fell
last week due to a combination of factors such as the overall market trading sentiment and the cooling of downstream demand at the end of the year, coupled with the weaker-than-expected economic data released by the newly released economic data.
Wind data shows that as of the close of February 2, the Shenwan primary non-ferrous metal index fell by 3.
36%
in the week.

On the macro front, China's official manufacturing PMI for January was 51.
3, released on January 31, less than expected 51.
6 and 51.
6
in the previous month.
At the same time, the official non-manufacturing PMI for January was 55.
3, up from 54.
9
in the previous month.
The PMI is one of the first economic data released in a month and is regarded as a leading index
of the economy.
Both the new orders index and the export orders index declined, reflecting a slight weakening on the demand side; Correspondingly, both the purchase inventory and finished goods inventory indices have recovered
from the previous month's lows.
Both input prices and output price indices fell sharply, and upward pressure on industrial products slowed
significantly.

Market data was lower than expected, resulting in a more pronounced
fluctuation in market confidence.
The Shanghai copper market is closely related to the inflection point of future demand, but from the trend point of view, the manufacturing PMI has been running above the boom and bust line for 18 consecutive months, and the steady economic growth trend is obvious
.
From the perspective of domestic demand, the foundation for China's steady economic growth has been formed
.

In terms of the market, the data shows that on February 1, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contracts reported a discount of 140 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton, flat water copper trading price of 52750 yuan / ton to 52850 yuan / ton, and premium copper trading price of 52780 yuan / ton to 52880 yuan / ton
.
Due to the downstream receipt is nearing the end, the wet copper transaction is weak, the goods are difficult to digest, and the price difference with flat water copper widens to 100 yuan / ton, and the quotation reaches a discount of more than
250 yuan / ton.
The transaction of low-end discount and large source of goods has advantages, and the transaction of some high-priced traders is slightly delayed
.
The range of discount receivings during the week may have been limited
.

On the whole, the Shanghai copper 1804 contract is currently bearish.

From the perspective of the weekly K-line technical pattern, a relatively obvious downward trend
has been formed.
From a daily perspective, the 5-day line and the 20-day line form a bearish arrangement, the MACD green column volume can not decrease, DIF and DEA lines have no signs of turning upward, and the market will still maintain a weak shock pattern
in the future.
Below the price, there is support for future copper consumption demand, but the short-term consumption off-season has a greater
impact.