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Shanghai aluminum fell first and then rose during the week, and the price was generally volatile
.
Goods stranded by the flood were concentrated in the warehouse, and the social treasury rose slightly
.
On the supply side, Yunnan, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia and other places have increased power rationing, and Yunnan Power Grid requires some aluminum plants to expand the load reduction to 30% on the basis of 25% load reduction, and the annual production capacity of the new 5% shutdown is about 150,000 tons; Guangxi Power Grid issued a 3 million kWh shift load reduction instruction, Inner Mongolia following the power rationing requirements in Mengdong in July, Mengxi region will also face secondary dual control pressure in August, which has little impact on the original production capacity, but the pace of new production is expected to continue to be delayed
.
At present, the fundamentals are increasingly affected by the power shortage, especially on the supply side, and the scope of production restrictions caused by the lack of electricity in the southwest region has gradually expanded, and the supply situation that was expected to improve in August has not improved, but has further deteriorated; On the demand side, except for some areas in Henan affected by electricity, due to the tightening of control caused by the rebound of the domestic epidemic, the regional transportation efficiency has declined, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased
slightly.
On the demand side, the current market has slowed down in the off-season.
Affected by the flood in Henan and the intensification of epidemic control in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places, the transportation of raw materials and migrant workers were hindered, and there was a certain reduction in production, and orders in other regions were still relatively sufficient
.
The current peak season shows the characteristics of a long cycle and gradually moves out of the pattern
of off-season.
From a fundamental point of view, the supply side is more disrupted and lasts longer, and the gap between supply and demand is gradually widening, which is conducive to prices
.
However, the current epidemic rebound may bring about changes in macro sentiment, and the better-than-expected performance of the US economic data in July has intensified the policy game, resulting in increased short-term aluminum price volatility, but the situation of high operation does not change, and you can go long
on the dip.
