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On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1809 fluctuated in a narrow range around 49300 yuan / ton, with an operating range of 49470-49150 yuan / ton, and closed at 49310 yuan / ton at the end, down slightly by 0.
2%
on the day.
In terms of term structure, Shanghai copper maintained a positive arrangement of near, low and far high, and the positive price difference between Shanghai copper 1809 contract and 1810 contract remained at 80 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading, Asian Lun copper rebounded weakly, extending the decline, of which as of 15:30 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 6076 US dollars / ton, down 1.
03% daily, hitting a new low since July 19 this year, the current copper price effectively fell below the moving average group, short-term vigilance technical selling increased
.
In terms of positions, as of August 1, the position of London copper was 308,000, an increase of 589 hands per day, and this week, London copper reduced its position downward, indicating that the bulls have insufficient confidence in bargain hunting
.
In terms of the market, on August 3, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contracts reported a premium of 40-80 yuan / ton for the month, and the trading price of flat water copper was 49180-49220 yuan / ton
.
Holders in the morning market continued to be willing to hold prices, and the price premium was 60-90 yuan / ton, and the market was afraid of high premium, and the transaction was suppressed
.
The basis narrowed to about 90 yuan / ton in the next month, the cargo holder took the initiative to reduce the shipment, good copper reported to the premium 70-80 yuan / ton, the transaction was acceptable, the flat water copper quotation premium 40-50 yuan / ton, downstream on-demand procurement, wet copper has been fully premium, quotation flat water - premium 20 yuan / ton
.
The offshore yuan has fallen above 6.
89, and the willingness to lift the premium is still strong, but the narrowing of the price spread has hindered the space for the premium to some extent, and the overall transaction of the intraday market has slowed down, and the supply and demand tug-of-war situation has become apparent
again.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index extended its rally and is now trading around 95.
2, close to the high of 95.
652 hit on July 19 this year, as the market still expects the Fed to raise interest rates twice more this year
.
The market focused on the US non-farm payrolls data for July, and expectations were generally positive
.
In addition, there are concerns about the escalation of the short-term Sino-US trade dispute, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of
the incident.
In terms of industry, it is reported that Chile's Escondida copper mine requires investors to provide the latest version of salary contracts by August 6, otherwise they will prepare for strike
.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1809 contract oscillated to 49310 yuan / ton
.
Against the background of the undecided outcome of the Chilean copper mine strike and the remaining concerns about the Sino-US trade war, the overall oscillation of the copper market is bearish, but long-short trading tends to be cautious
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1809 contract can be sold high and low between 50,000-49,000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 450 yuan / ton
each.