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In February, aluminum prices were running at a high above 22,000
.
On the macro front, the logic of the overseas energy crisis has continued to this day, LME inventories continue to deteriorate, Cash-3M maintains a high premium, EU aluminum premium, US Midwest premium also climbed, overseas fundamentals continue to be strong, supporting aluminum prices
.
Domestically, the pace of resumption of production on the supply side is slow, and Guangxi has a large number of shutdowns affected by the epidemic, and the supply pressure is not obvious
for the time being.
Downstream processing enterprises on the demand side continue to resume work, but high aluminum prices inhibit downstream procurement sentiment, resulting in inventory still in the accumulation cycle
.
From the perspective of absolute quantity, the current inventory pressure is not large, the pace of accumulation continues to slow down, and the inventory of aluminum rods has reached an inflection point
.
If there is a correction in aluminum prices in the near future, downstream purchasing sentiment will improve, so there is limited
space below aluminum prices.
In terms of inventory, the trend of domestic and foreign inventories continued to diverge in February, and LME inventories continued to pull back at a low level, with an overall accumulation of 625 tons to 824,200 tons this month: the trend of Shanghai aluminum inventories was relatively strong, with 53,200 tons to 335,900 tons
accumulated this month 。 In terms of social inventory, the trend of alumina inventory this month is relatively flat, the overall destocking of 35,000 tons to 280,000 tons, the current inventory level fell to a historical low, unchanged from the same period in 2019; aluminum rods returned to the destocking stage after many weeks of accumulation, the overall accumulation of 112,500 tons to 285,000 tons in February, the inventory was at the highest water level in history; the overall accumulation of aluminum ingots in February was 373,000 tons to 1.
099 million tons, and the expected high point or fell around
1.
15 million tons.
Looking forward to the future market, the energy crisis has impacted the production of electrolytic aluminum, carbon neutral control capacity expansion, supply disturbance is the mainstay, downstream demand is not strong, and aluminum rod inventory is large
.
Carbon neutrality has prompted changes in the aluminum industry, long-term benefits to aluminum prices, and short-term aluminum prices fluctuate greatly
.
