The outlook for the global chemical industry in 2022 is cautiously optimistic

Industry analysts said that the outlook for the global chemical industry in 2022 is cautiously optimistic, but it faces greater pressure from the situation, such as rising energy and raw material costs, other inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and the continuation of the epidemic

The growth rate of the chemical industry will slow down

According to Martha Moore, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council (ACC), global chemical industry production will grow by 3.

The output growth of the chemical industry is mainly supported by the continued growth of the global economy

The American Chemistry Council predicts that production growth in all sub-sectors of the global chemical industry in 2022 will be lower than in 2021, with agrochemicals slowing from 3% in 2021 to 2.

After a strong 5% increase in 2021, EU-27 chemical industry output will slow to 2.

The Association of the German Chemical Industry (VCI) forecasts that in 2022 production of chemicals (excluding pharmaceuticals) in Germany will increase by 1.

Economic recovery slows

Energy consultancy Aisin Huamai predicts that global gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.

　　Aisin Huamai also predicts that global industrial output value will grow by 4.
2% in 2022, significantly lower than 7% in 2021, of which the growth rate of industrial output value in North America will slow from 5.
6% in 2021 to 4.
4% in 2022, and Latin America will slow down to 4.
4% in 2022.
Slowing from 7.
4% to 1.
4%, Western Europe from 6.
8% to 2.
8%, Eastern Europe and Central Asia from 4.
9% to 3.
5%, Middle East and North Africa from 2.
1% to 5.
9%, Asia Pacific from 8.
6% % slowed to 5.
2%
.

　　China will still maintain strong economic growth prospects in 2022, after achieving 8.
1% GDP growth in 2021, China's GDP will grow by 5.
5% in 2022
.
China's industrial output will grow by a further 5.
6% in 2022, after an 8.
5% increase in 2021
.
Although the Chinese economy will show weak growth at the end of 2021, the government has adjusted its policies in a timely manner, and the Chinese economy will stabilize
.

　　Sarah Johnson, executive director of global economics at Essen Huamai, said, “In 2022, businesses will face multiple challenges to the global economy
.
These include virus variants, fiscal policy moving from stimulus to restraint, rising interest rates and tighter credit conditions, and the transition from hydrocarbons to hydrocarbons.
Compounding the difficult transition to renewable energy
.
During these transitions, global growth is likely to slow in 2022 as some major economies approach or reach full employment
.
In addition, geopolitical conflicts will continue to pose risks to the economic outlook "
.

　　Inflationary pressure should not be underestimated

　　Despite the risks, the outlook for the global chemical industry is optimistic
.
In November 2021, the global chemical industry purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 52.
2, and the future PMI index is expected to be 65.
3, which is a bullish signal and means that the chemical industry production will increase in the coming year
.
However, some indicators remained weak, such as the supplier delivery time index at 36.
2 and the finished goods inventory index at 48
.
In addition, price pressure is high, with the input price index in November 2021 at 73.
4 and the output price index at 63.
7
.
Input cost growth in November 2021 was the highest since July 2008, driven by higher transport, energy and labor costs
.

　　Dow Chemical issued a warning in December 2021 that due to the dual impact of rising raw material prices and falling polyethylene prices, the company's earnings in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be lower than expected
.

　　Global energy and raw material prices are expected to remain high in 2022 due to lower investment and economic recovery
.

　　In 2022, rising U.
S.
crude production should help ease tight oil supplies
.
Global liquid fuel production will increase by 5.
5 million barrels per day in 2022, exceeding expectations for demand growth of 4 million barrels per day, according to Essin Huamai estimates
.

　　In 2022, Brent crude oil is expected to average $75/bbl, falling back to $72/bbl in 2023
.
In 2021, the Henry Center gas price in the United States will reach $3.
85/MMBtu, nearly doubling compared to 2020, but it has shown signs of falling back in late 2021 and early 2022
.
Aisin Huamai predicts that the gas price in Henry Center in the United States will be US$3.
16/million British thermal units in 2022, and will further fall to US$3/million British thermal units in 2023
.
(Zhang Chunxiao)

From: Sinopec News