The oscillating trend of tianjiao continues to strengthen temporarily, and the possibility of strengthening remains

Supply: Southeast Asia: It is reported that the current rainfall and labor shortage in Thailand have reduced the production of new rubber; At present, the industry has placed the expectation that the rubber production will be significantly improved in mid-to-late July
.
China: It is reported that the rubber tapping in Hainan and Yunnan Banna production areas has not improved much, the progress is slow, and according to local traders, the import indicators of previous years have not been issued, the local domestic rubber and imported rubber supply are in short supply, and the local rubber prices of various brands are firm, especially since late May to about a month
.

In terms of inventory, data show that as of June 22, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 240139 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 231490 tons, an increase of 1390 tons and a decrease of 370 tons respectively from last week; From the perspective of the pressure of rubber stocks on the exchange, the stocks of full latex and No.
20 rubber both decreased
slightly.
It is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is at a high level and the pressure is heavy
.
Qingdao Free Trade Zone: The inbound rate is greater than the outbound rate, and the inventory inside and outside the zone has increased
slightly.
The short-term supply of domestic new rubber is small, the overall increase in domestic inventory is obvious, and the contradiction between supply and demand is large
.

In terms of demand, tire companies: as of the week of June 18, the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers was 66.
79%, up 10.
37% month-on-month and down 1.
84% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 70.
33%, up 6.
21% month-on-month and down 3.
30% year-on-year; The data shows that the operating rate of the domestic tire market has rebounded sharply month-on-month, it is reported that semi-steel tire manufacturers have increased production due to the increase in export orders, and in terms of all-steel tires, manufacturers in Dongying area have gradually returned to normal due to environmental factors
.
From the terminal point of view, the performance of tire supporting demand in the later period driven by infrastructure is expected to be better
.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's rubber tire production in May was 68.
929 million, down 4.
6%
year-on-year.
From January to May, the production of rubber tire tires decreased by 14.
6% year-on-year to 287.
193 million units
.
Automobiles: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production in May was 2.
187 million units, up 18.
2%
year-on-year.
China's vehicle sales in May were 2.
194 million units, up 14.
5%
y/y.

As of late June, the output of new rubber in the main producing areas at home and abroad is still not much, and the impact of this year's new rubber volume on the market has not yet begun, and China's domestic inventory has increased significantly, and the total amount is high; From the perspective of the regional market, the tight supply of goods in Yunnan, especially in the Banna area, has led to regional prices that have been very firm so far; From the downstream situation, the impact of new infrastructure on demand is gradually obvious, the operating rate of tire companies has increased, and demand is expected to continue to increase, but foreign markets are affected by the epidemic, and the demand situation is relatively decadent
.
After the market, this month's new rubber for the market estimate can not have an impact, the current increase in automobile sales, tire production increase, operating rate and other positive signals of demand are more obvious, it is expected that the small volatility trend of tianjiao continues, before a large number of new rubber on the market, the possibility of a sharp decline is not large, but the possibility of temporary strengthening remains
.