The oil and gas industry determines the recovery prospects of the Gulf countries

Affected by the dual impact of the downturn in the performance of the oil industry and the non-oil industry, it will take time for the economies of the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to recover.

In 2020, the GDP of the Gulf countries is expected to shrink by about 6%.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman:

Economic recovery still depends on oil

As Saudi Arabia led OPEC to cut production, oil exports have dropped significantly, and the government's finances have been severely affected.

The Kuwaiti economy’s dependence on the oil and gas industry is the most direct among the Gulf countries.

Oman has voluntarily reduced production with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in addition to the OPEC production cut quota, so that the country's oil production will be reduced by at least 6% in 2020.

UAE:

Petroleum, Dubai World Expo two-wheel drive

OPEC’s production cut measures have caused the UAE’s oil production to drop from 3.

　　The UAE economy is expected to gradually recover in 2021, but the actual GDP will not return to the level of 2019 until at least 2023.
The oil and gas industry will again become the main driving force of UAE economic development with the end of OPEC production cuts and the commissioning of new natural gas projects.
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The recovery of the non-oil industry will rely more on public investment in the chemical, logistics, construction, and manufacturing sectors.

　　Compared with Abu Dhabi, which is rich in oil and gas resources, Dubai's economy is dominated by non-oil industries.
The epidemic has led to a substantial decrease in revenue from the aviation and tourism industries that Dubai depends on for survival.
To this end, the Dubai government has introduced a series of economic stimulus plans to help companies tide over the difficulties.
Currently, Dubai has gradually liberalized epidemic control measures, and the tourism industry has significantly recovered.
The 2020 Dubai World Expo has been postponed to October 1, 2021, which will provide a good opportunity for Dubai's economic recovery and promote the development of related industries.

　　Qatar, Bahrain:

　　The recovery of the non-oil industry will improve the economy

　　Qatar has withdrawn from OPEC since January 2019, so Qatar does not implement OPEC's production reduction measures.
Unlike other Gulf countries where oil production is dominated by oil production, natural gas accounts for 80% of Qatar's oil and gas industry and oil accounts for only 20%.
Therefore, the continued decline in international oil prices will have relatively little impact on Qatar's economy.
However, the performance of Qatar's non-oil industry is sluggish in 2020.
Although it is expected that as the epidemic is effectively controlled, Qatar's non-oil industry will gradually recover in 2021.
However, due to the slowdown in the growth of the construction industry and related industries, Qatar's GDP growth will continue to grow by 2023.
Will be lower than the historical average.

　　Compared with other Gulf countries, Bahrain's economy is less dependent on the oil and gas industry, but its tourism, trade, and financial industries are more affected by the epidemic, resulting in an annual economic contraction expected to reach 5%.
The government of Bahrain plans to launch a number of infrastructure construction projects to stimulate economic growth.
(Abu Dhabi reporter Wang Junpeng)

Transfer from: China Economic Net-"Economic Daily"

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