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Today's Shanghai aluminum main month 2109 contract, opening 20450 yuan / ton, the highest intraday 20450 yuan / ton, the lowest 20000 yuan / ton, settlement 20350 yuan / ton, the end of the close to 20190 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum morning around the moving average oscillation afternoon downward, Henan area power rationing has eased, some aluminum processing resumed operation, but Henan due to the epidemic transportation restrictions, Gongyi aluminum ingot supply tight is difficult to alleviate, can be consumed off-season effect still exists, aluminum prices short-term relative pressure
.
Today's Lun aluminum volatility trend, LME three-month Beijing time at 15:01 at 2584 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars, or 0.
31%,
from the previous trading day's settlement price.
In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 20310-20350 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 20470-20530 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan; Hua reported 20370-20410 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan
.
Holders maintain high prices and sell at high prices, receivers actively purchase at low prices, the trading atmosphere is better, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and the overall transaction activity is better
.
Strong fundamentals are still the main logic
supporting high aluminum prices.
The supply side has been continuously disturbed due to power rationing, and the recent inventory has accumulated due to concentrated arrivals, but the absolute value is at a low level of more than 700,000 tons, indicating that the demand side has fallen in the traditional off-season, but there is still a certain degree of resilience
.
In addition, the recently released real estate data from January to July was slightly weak, and the growth rate of new housing construction area turned negative, but the growth rate of completed area was still the same
as in June.
It is recommended to pay attention to the future real estate trend, if it continues to weaken, it may have a greater negative impact
on the demand for electrolytic aluminum in the medium and long term.
Overall, it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in August
.
In terms of strategy, it is expected to fluctuate between 19800-20300 in the short term, and the first long orders can continue to be held, but it is not recommended to chase too high; Maintain a bullish view
for the long term.
