The number of new infections in Beijing has reached a new high in a single day for a whole month. What does this mean?

In Beijing, the epidemic is in turmo.

At least 15 rounds of regional nucleic acid detection in Chaoyang District, 16 rounds of regional nucleic acid detection in Haidian District, and 13 rounds of regional nucleic acid detection in Fengtai Distri.

But all this did not stop the spread of the vir.

On April 22, an outbreak occurred in Beijing, and the number of new infections per day rose from single digits to ten digi.

On May 22, the current round of the epidemic was exactly one month o.

This means that the number of new infections in Beijing's current round of the epidemic has hit a new high, nearly doubling the avera.

Data source: The official website of the Beijing Municipal HealthCommission, from 0-24:00 that day 

During the month of the epidemic in Beijing, the number of urban areas involved in the epidemic continued to increase, the measures for epidemic prevention and control were gradually increased, and high-frequency large-scale nucleic acid testing continued to be carried o.

However, judging from the number of newly infected people, the current measures seem to be barely equal to the development of the epidem.

The number of Beijing residents working from home continues to increase, and many districts in Beijing have been upgraded to higher levels of contr.

The current round of the epidemic in Beijing is still moving in the ha.

Why is the prevention and control policy still unable to prevent the virus?

Looking back on this month, Beijing's prevention and control measures for the current round of the epidemic have been upgraded step by step with the development of the epidem.

Before the May Day holiday, the Beijing Municipal Government announced that catering business units would suspend dine-in and switch to take-out servic.

From May 5th, Chaoyang District will implement home office and point-to-point closed-loop manageme.

Public transport has also been shut do.

A more important requirement is that from May 12, Beijing has required a 48-hour nucleic acid certificate to enter various public places, units and supermarkets in the ci.

On the other hand, in order to find infected people in society, large-scale nucleic acid testing has also begun in full swi.

According to incomplete statistics from Eight Points Jianwen, in the past month, Chaoyang District has carried out at least 15 rounds of regional nucleic acid testing, Haidian District has carried out at least 16 rounds of regional nucleic acid testing, and Fengtai District has carried out at least 13 rounds of regional nucleic acid testi.

Even so, for the past month, every screening must be done, and the social aspect has not been clear.

It seems that the epidemic prevention work can only barely draw a tie with the spread of the vir.

After multiple rounds of nucleic acid testing, there are still social sporadic cases, which are uncommon in the eyes of many exper.

At the press conferences held by the Beijing Municipal Government, officials and experts at all levels did not give too much speculation and judgment, only emphasizing that "Beijing's epidemic is at a critical stage and a period of anxie.

"

In the face of Omicron, have our prevention and control measures failed? Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, told Badianjianwen that the relatively stable data in the early and mid-term shows that Beijing's prevention and control measures still play some role, but the epidemic has not been controlled, and that some links in the prevention and control measures may have appear.

probl.

He pointed out, for example, regional large-scale nucleic acid testi.

Jin Dongyan and virologist Chang Rongshan both believe that residents are at risk of infection when they line up to go downstairs for nucleic acid testi.

As a virus with an R0 value of more than 10, Omicron, even if wearing a medical mask, maintains a distance of two meters and is in an outdoor environme.

, may still cause infecti.

In addition, the nucleic acid detection strategy adopted by Beijing is "10 mixed with
The above two experts believe that this detection method has low accuracy and may miss positive patients among residen.

In addition, a small number of residents do not cooperate and are unwilling to carry out nucleic acid testing, nucleic acid testing and sampling personnel are not standardized, and nucleic acid testing laboratory data is falsified, e.

, which may also make social screening uncle.

Beijing Continues to Find a "Third Way" for Epidemic Prevention

Since the beginning of this year, when different cities have "encountered" with Omicron, there has been a question that has always been discussed: what should a large city do against Omicron?

The most "direct" way is to close cities - closed management and global static management have become the new normal for epidemic prevention in many cities this ye.

Control", all staff nucleic acid, and then have to go back to the old road of closing the ci.

Since the beginning of this year, the Omicron epidemic has broken out in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changchun, Jilin and other plac.

At least 6 large cities have "closed management" and "global static managemen.

The epidemic requires increased restrictive measur.

Since April 5, Shanghai has entered the era of "global static management" after experiencing the alternate closure and control of Pudong and Puxi; and outside of Shanghai, Jilin Province, where the epidemic is the most serious, the situation of "multi-point closure and control" is more obvio.

, From March 11, Changchun City implemented the city-wide closed management, and it took 33 days until Changchun City achieved "social zero" on April 1

Shenzhen has asked citizens to stop all non-essential movements since March 1 Within the next seven days, Shenzhen completed three rounds of nucleic acid testing for all employees across the ci.

From March 21, Shenzhen resumed normal work order and production and operati.

From this point of view, in the previous experience with Omicron, apart from global static management, no middle way has been fou.

Like Shanghai before, Beijing is also exploring the third way to fight against Omikron in this round of the epidem.

In the megacities, there is no closure or silence, and social normal order is maintained as much as possib.

This kind of thinking is reflected in: only communities with positive cases are sealed and controlled, the city's sub-districts carry out nucleic acid testing for all regional staff according to the situation, and each district is managed and controlled according to the actual situation, and the management of home office and travel transportation is upgraded on a district-by-district bas.

All the methods are very different from the mandatory "global static management" in the experience of other citi.

The purpose is to prevent Beijing from entering a silent situation as much as possible while preventing the epidem.

However, after one month of implementation of this plan, the living radius of Beijing citizens is getting smaller and small.

To a certain extent, in addition to the closure of the city, Beijing has used almost all other strict measures - high-frequency nucleic acid for all employees, working from home, closing dine-in restaurants, closing indoor public places, closing public transportation one after anoth.

But even so, judging from the 94 newly infected people yesterday and the inflection point of the epidemic that has not yet occurred, although this round of epidemic has not spread on a large scale, it is far from being contained and has not achieved the expected effe.

Jin Dongyan believes that if the goal is to clear zero, the current epidemic prevention and control measures may have "been out of tim.

Virologist Chang Rongshan said that the current round of the epidemic in Beijing did not stabilize at around 50 new cases per day, but showed a slow upward tre.

The 94 newly infected people yesterday may represent that the epidemic situation in Beijing will reach a new lev.

Keep some social flows, not silent, and not locked down - but after a month of exploration, Beijing chose the third way to fight Omikron, which does not seem to be able to suppress the epidemic in this mega-city at prese.

go do.

walking in the fog

How will the epidemic in Beijing develop? Where does it end up? In the face of the mysterious Chron, if you want to control quickly, will sealing control and even static management become the only option that is the most helpless?

Beijing has gathered China's top epidemiologists and disease control experts, and the daily press conference has been held for a month, but it is still impossible to predict the trend of the epidemic and the target date for clearing .

A number of virologists and epidemiologists told Badian Jianwen that from the perspective of the development trend, it is still impossible to judge the inflection point and end point of the epidemic in Beiji.

In Chang Rongshan's view, it is "frankly impossible" to clear it in Ju.

The epidemic situation in Beijing is actually unstable, and the number of new infections per day is slowly risi.

Another Beijing expert said bluntly that it is impossible to predict the trend of the epidem.

"If it was Delta, with such measures, the source of infection would have been controlled and the work would have end.

"

What about the future? A public health expert told 8:00 Jianwen, "The current prevention and control measures are severe enou.

What should be done for prevention and control has not yet reached the level of closing the ci.

"

Wang Guangfa, director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine at Peking University First Hospital, said that the total number of infected people in this round of epidemic in Beijing is not large, and there have been no deaths, so "if the current situation can be maintained, it may be acceptab.

" He believes that Beijing's current epidemic prevention measures can still be called effective, "If these things are not done, the number of cases may increase exponential.

There are such examples at home and abro.

If the control is not in place in big cities, it is impossible to maintain the current situati.

”

In the opinion of another Beijing clinical expert, the current epidemic prevention measures may be difficult to susta.

"If the epidemic comes again in June or July, what should we do then? What experience can we draw from this time?" He felt that Beijing was following the virus this time, like a whack-a-mole, hitting a hammer wherever there was a ca.

, trying to suppress the epidemic, but the cases are constantly emergi.

Omicron seems to have surpassed people's previous understanding of the spread of the virus and effective measures to fight the epidem.

Therefore, in the face of the unpredictable and unpredictable epidemic situation, Beijing is like a candidate preparing for the war alone, "rubbing clothes in the dark laundry room", under the requirements of saving resources and reducing losses, but does not know how much washing powder to gradually sprinkle, It takes a lot of rubbing to wash it off, so I can only keep working hard a little bit, looking forward to the morning and the clothes being cle.

In the end, if the exploration in this fog is not very successful, no matter what the size of the city is in the future, if we want to achieve the goal of clearing, can we only be like many small towns, if there are one or two cases of infection, the whole city will be managed statically - continue that A path that has a clearer route and may be more efficient, but at a higher cost?