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On Friday, the main monthly 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 15865 yuan / ton, the highest intraday was 16160 yuan / ton, the lowest was 15830 yuan / ton, the settlement was 16015 yuan / ton, and the end closed at 16090 yuan / ton, up 265 yuan
.
In terms of fundamentals, with the peak season after downstream consumption or ushered in a gradual cooling, but the fourth quarter consumption is still generally supported, in addition to the increase trend of supply is also worth paying attention to, it is expected that aluminum prices continue to maintain a pattern of near strength and far weakness, the medium-term rally slows down, and may gradually return to shock.
Supply-side smelter profits remain high, industry capacity will be further released in November, alumina industry operating rate continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks were dematerialized by 4,000 tons to 1,388,300 tons last day, 486 tons to 232,100 tons last week, and warehouse receipts fell by 1,129 tons to 95,607 tons
.
According to the data on November 23, the social stock decreased by 04,000 tons compared with the statistics on November 19 to 618,000 tons, and the social stock continued to remain low
.
On the whole, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is at a low level in the historical year, which forms a strong support
for the price.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices fell slightly, and the profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly, and production profits are still in a high position from a historical perspective
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in October, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.
In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, the production capacity of the supply side is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the new production capacity in November further releases a certain suppression of the price of electrolytic aluminum, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.
