The market situation and Prospect of domestic corn in the near future

Introduction: at present, the overall domestic corn market has not yet taken shape Factors such as different psychology of enterprises in production and marketing areas and differences in market supply are the main factors that have not yet formed this pattern According to the statistics of relevant departments, at present, the central region of Jilin Province has offered 1000-1020 yuan / ton for centralized delivery of dried corn, which is about 20 yuan / ton higher than the previous period At present, the quantity of corn delivery in Jilin Province is less than that in Heilongjiang Province, mainly due to the grain enterprises' reluctance to sell and the decline of supply capacity In the West and north of Liaoning Province, the price of dry corn is 1020-1040 yuan / ton The quantity and supply capacity of new and stock corn are obviously low Heilongjiang and Jilin are the main parts of corn transported to Dalian port area In Qinhuangdao area of northern Hebei Province, the price of dried corn in Northeast China is 1050-1055 yuan / ton, which is about 5-10 yuan / ton higher than that in the earlier stage, and the price of corn with low water content is about 1040-1050 yuan / ton Xingtai region in the middle of Hebei Province has raised the price of corn purchase by 20 yuan / ton At present, the price of corn purchase is 1060 yuan / ton The reason is that the grain enterprises in this region have sufficient funds for corn purchase and fixed sales channels, so they intend to take in higher prices In the south of Shandong Province, the price of dried corn in the northeast is 1060-1080 yuan / ton, while in the East, the price of corn in the northeast is 1080-1100 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that in the earlier stage At present, the quantity of corn in the Northeast has increased steadily According to the development situation of China's corn market this year, the overall rising corn market is expected to form The specific analysis is as follows: QTL looks at the price trend from the corn export situation: QTL enters into April, China's export corn will continue to perform the remaining contracts of the previous year Due to the current shortage of corn export sources in Northeast China, can the remaining contracts in 2002 be in 4 Before the end of the month, the implementation will test the corn supply capacity in Northeast China The source pointed out that according to the international corn market situation, the government's corn export support this year may be reduced year on year, but the reduction is relatively limited It is estimated that the financial support is still 330-340 yuan / ton, and it is expected to continue to play a significant role in supporting exports in the current international environment According to the letter from northeast grain export group, at present, the group is trying its best to prepare for export cargo, domestic trade activities are relatively slow down, and all efforts are made to complete the export transport task, so as to create a good atmosphere for the next stage of continued export From the perspective of enterprise profit, as foreign trade corn is superior to domestic trade corn in terms of procedures and risks, most enterprises show strong interest in export It is expected that with the active efforts of enterprises to prepare goods for shipment, the completion of export tasks can still be expected In a sense, the relatively tight supply of export goods indicates the degree of tightness of the supply of goods in Northeast China, which is expected to be favorable for the later stage of market price QTL from the Northeast transport capacity to see the future development: QTL Since the Spring Festival, due to the increase of passenger flow, mainline maintenance, freight flow and other factors in Northeast China, the transportation capacity of Northeast China Railway is tense From the current situation, the transportation capacity of Northeast China has not been improved significantly, and the enterprise's transportation vehicles are still difficult to be effectively matched, the cost of vehicle skin has not been significantly reduced, and most enterprises are still difficult to carry out large-scale outward transportation activities According to Fang's grain enterprises, enterprises with export conditions are more willing to import and export transportation, while they are less active in domestic trade delivery With the "Five Year Plan", "Five Year Plan" and "Five Year Plan", they are more willing to import and export transportation; First, as the peak of passenger flow approaches, the railway power transmission capacity will be more tense, and the peak of domestic feed consumption will also come The Central Plains corn inventory will also end, the northeast corn sales position will be very prominent, and the transportation capacity problem will become the top priority Affected by this, in front of the strong demand market, the tight supply will provide an excuse for the high price rise QTL from the policy trend to see the market development trend: QTL Due to the uneven distribution of the original planting structure and inventory structure in China, the historical inventory of corn in Northeast China has been overstocked seriously In recent years, the government of China has increased the sales of historical inventory, and the emerging form of sales - grain bidding trade has been formed Last year, China's grain bidding trade fair was held frequently, with good market response, and there was no grain due to grain selling The situation that the price drops substantially basically meets the expected goal of the government This year, the government should continue this way, and the government's support for enterprises will increase Take Changchun, Jilin as an example Recently, it was learned from the Changchun municipal government that this year, Changchun will cancel the storage subsidy and interest subsidy of 3.5 million tons of protective Yumi, and adopt the method of sales subsidy The increase of policy support will stimulate the active sales of enterprises, which may have a certain impact on the market in the short term However, in the long term, the decline of the overall level of inventory marks the decline of the effective supply in the later period The greater the sales force is, the stronger the chance of the market price rising in the later period From this point of view, the introduction of promotion policies will have a positive impact on the market It can be said that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages QTL viewing market price space from buyer's psychology: QTL At present, no matter from the perspective of farmers or from the perspective of enterprises, farmers and enterprises in Northeast China show a strong reluctance to sell They have low enthusiasm for the source of grain in their hands With the increase of purchase price, farmers' grain hoarding enthusiasm may continue to rise, while with the continued strong export momentum, seasonal consumption peak With the coming of the market, the mentality of the grain selling enterprises in Northeast China will become more and more intense With the increase of market demand and the decrease of sales channels, the driving force of the mentality of farmers and enterprises will become stronger, and the market price will rise rapidly QTL: looking at the international market from the perspective of American corn planting qTL recently, the U.S Department of Agriculture announced for the first time that the planting area of American corn in 2003 is expected to drop to 79 million 220 thousand mu (31 million 980 thousand HA) this spring, which is slightly lower than last year's level and 3% lower than the expected level in February Around, because of concerns about high fertilizer prices, a possible shortage of fuel supplies and the severity of this year's drought The lower expectation of corn planting area in the United States, to a large extent, enhances the confidence of the rising international market price in the future, and promotes the export of corn in China and inhibits the increase of import quantity QTL generally speaking, with the passage of time, the development environment of domestic corn market is becoming more and more optimistic, the market price rebound power is increasing, and the price of corn in Northeast China continues to be optimistic In a sense, it has provided support for the overall upward trend of domestic corn market, and it is expected that the pattern of red color of domestic corn will be formed in April QTL