The main trend of Shanghai aluminum fell and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment

Market focus: (1) British Prime Minister Johnson on Monday was still considering a second nationwide lockdown, forcing millions of people to return to their homes
.
(2) At 22:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin attended the hearing
of the House Financial Services Committee.
(3) IAI data, global primary aluminum production fell to 5.
485 million tons in August, and 5.
489 million tons
after revision in July.

Spot analysis: On September 22, spot A00 aluminum reported 14730-14770 yuan / ton, the average price was 14750 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that traders mainly shipped goods, large households were generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, downstream mining was not good, and the overall transaction was flat
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 107,020 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 7,328 tons, down for 6 consecutive days; On September 21, LME aluminum stocks were 1,499,100 tons, a daily decrease of 5,075 tons, and a decline of 23 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contracts were 69651 lots, minus 5688 lots per day, short positions were 80687 lots, daily minus 7685 lots, net short positions were 11036 lots, daily minus 1997 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On September 22, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2010 fluctuated and fell
.
The increasing domestic production of alumina and the high level of port inventories have led to weak alumina prices; The high profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has stimulated the gradual release of smelter capacity, coupled with a slight decline in domestic aluminum production month-on-month, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
However, market demand has performed well, and the current import window is in a preliminary closing state, and domestic inventories have fallen sharply recently; At the same time, the downstream aluminum rod warehouse continues to degrade, currently reaching a low level in the year, and there is an expectation of recovery in future market demand, which is expected to drive the operating rate of aluminum enterprises to rebound, which has strong
support for aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, focusing on the support of the 14450 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.