The main shock of Shanghai copper rose slightly, and the upward momentum was insufficient

Market focus: (1) The US PCE price index increased by 0.
2% month-on-month in February, lower than expectations and 0.
3% in the previous month, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.
1% month-on-month in February, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.
2%.

(2) According to my nonferrous metals, on March 26, China's copper concentrate port inventory was 577,000 tons, unchanged from last week; during the same period, China's copper ore processing fee TC was 30.
6 US dollars / dry ton, down 1 US dollar / dry ton weekly, once again refreshing the lowest since
2011.

Spot analysis: On March 29, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 66130-66340 yuan / ton, with an average price of 66235 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 575 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that cargo holders are waiting and seeing, downstream just demand is the mainstay, and the transaction continues to be deadlocked
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 112031 tons, an increase of 675 tons per day; On March 26, LME copper stocks stood at 123,800 tonnes, up 2,125 tonnes
per day.
As of the week of March 26, the Shanghai copper inventory in the previous period reported 188359 tons, a weekly increase of 987 tons, an increase of 8 consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract are 90536 lots, minus 2248 lots per day, short positions are 93800 lots, daily increase of 1958 lots, net short positions are 3264 lots, daily increase of 4206 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On March 29, the Shanghai copper 2105 shock rose
slightly.
The US PCE data for February was in line with expectations, and the market focused on the US ADP payrolls and non-farm payrolls report for March, and the current Fed's expectations for a strong economic recovery heated up, and the dovish attitude showed signs of loosening, which extended the US dollar index high
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continued to decline, and processing fee TC continued to decline, resulting in high smelting costs; However, the risk of a Chilean copper strike has been lifted recently, the Peruvian Transport Association strike has ended, copper mine supply is expected to gradually recover, and the CSPT team will finalize the TC floor price
for the second quarter by the end of this month.
Recently, with the arrival of the consumption season, domestic copper inventories have shown signs of inflection, but the future market still needs to pay attention to the extent of
destocking.
Copper prices are not enough to move up
.
Technically, the mainstream positions of the Shanghai Copper 2105 contract increased and decreased more, continuing the triangle convergence, and it is expected that the short-term range will be adjusted
.