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Internal and external trends: LME copper opened low on Thursday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 5780 US dollars / ton, down 0.
29%
on the day.
The main 2008 contract of Shanghai copper rose slightly, with the highest 46880 yuan / ton, the lowest 46600 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 46760 yuan / ton, up 0.
28% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 68238 lots, and the daily decrease was 34801 lots; The position was 92754 lots, an increase of 3706 lots
per day.
basis 330 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai copper in 2007-2008 was 160 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) British Prime Minister Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron will meet on June 18, and the Brexit trade negotiations have entered a critical stage
.
(2) WBMS data, the global copper market had a supply shortage of 2,400 tons from January to April 2020, and an oversupply of 188,000 tons
from January to March.
Spot analysis: On June 18, SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 47060-47120 yuan / ton, the average price was 47090 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 185 yuan / ton
.
SMM reported that the high-rise underwater market is extremely cautious in receiving goods, the transaction market is not as good as the morning market, the willingness to replenish the downstream bargain is gradually increasing, the holders want to pull the water and continue to push up the premium quotation, but the buying of the high-rise underwater market is suppressed, speculators due to the narrowing of the price difference of the high premium, the enthusiasm for active operation has declined, the transaction first rose and then declined, and the transaction is still led by traders
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 56,103 tons on Thursday, down 450 tons per day; On June 17, LME copper stocks were 244,700 tonnes, down 3,775 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2008 contract were 60910 lots, a daily increase of 4389 lots, short positions were 67306 lots, a daily increase of 3058 lots, a net short position of 6396 lots, a daily decrease of 1331 lots, long and short increased, and net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2008 volatility rose slightly on June 18
.
The global epidemic situation remains grim, and fierce clashes on the Sino-Indian border have dampened market optimism; At the same time, the domestic market has entered the traditional off-season, and downstream demand has weakened in stages, resulting in signs of recovery in Shanghai copper inventories and increasing pressure on copper prices
.
However, the current tight supply of domestic copper mines, coupled with the severe epidemic situation in Chile, may affect copper mining and support
copper prices.
In terms of spot, the high-rise market is extremely cautious in receiving goods, the transaction market is not as good as the morning market, and the willingness to replenish downstream bargains is increasing
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2008 contract increased significantly, and the daily MACD red column decreased, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2008 contract can be long around 46700 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 46400 yuan / ton
.
