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On Thursday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai copper fell slightly, with the highest 52170 yuan / ton and the lowest 51560 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 51690 yuan / ton, down 0.
37% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper opened high and fell, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 6455.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
32%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The Fed kept its benchmark overnight lending rate near zero and will continue to buy bonds, as well as a range of lending and liquidity programs
related to the response to the virus.
Spot analysis: On July 30, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 51780-51940 yuan / ton, the average price of 51860 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 40 yuan / ton
.
Good copper sources account for a small proportion, holders temporarily postpone price adjustments, downstream to maintain just need to buy, save can be pressed price space, the last two days of the end of the month, the transaction is weak has become a trend, the holders take the initiative to let the price of the transaction mainly, the characteristics of the end of the month are obvious
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 60,662 tons on Thursday, an increase of 1,473 tons per day; On July 29, LME copper stocks were 131,900 tons, down 2,125 tons per day, down 31 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contract were 80124 lots, a daily increase of 1946 lots, short positions were 82331 lots, a daily increase of 3343 lots, a net short position of 2207 lots, a daily increase of 1397 lots, long and short increases, and net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: On July 30, Shanghai copper 2009 volatility fell
slightly.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and promised to support the economy with all tools, and the dollar index remained under pressure from the strengthening of its dovish stance; At the same time, the tight supply of upstream copper mines continues, coupled with the weak price of sulfuric acid, and the profit compression leads to the suppression of refined copper production, which has strong support for copper prices
.
However, US-China tensions and the spread of the global pandemic have increased uncertainty about the economic outlook; In addition, the current market is in a seasonal off-season, the overall performance of downstream demand is weak, and copper prices lack upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, holders have suspended price adjustments, downstream maintenance of just need to buy, the transaction has become a trend, and holders take the initiative to let the price of transactions
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2009 contract continued the convergence of the shock triangle, focusing on the 20-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate lightly in the range of 51300-52300 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 200 yuan / ton
each.
