The main shock of Shanghai aluminum rises and is expected to be strong in the short term

Market focus: (1) The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose to a six-month high in September, but it has been below 80
for six consecutive months.
(2) As of September 18, the inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants was 82,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 02,000 tons, and a new low
in the year for three consecutive weeks.

Spot analysis: On September 21, SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 14770-14810 yuan / ton, the average price was 14790 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, the downstream atmosphere of fear of heights continues, the supply and demand performance is light, and the transaction is light
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 114348 tons, a daily decrease of 20,583 tons, a continuous decline of 5 days; On September 18, LME aluminum stocks were 1504175 tons, a daily decrease of 2250 tons, and a decline of 22 consecutive days
.
As of the week of September 18, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 248991 tons, a weekly decrease of 2275 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contract are 75339 lots, minus 1428 lots per day, short positions are 88372 lots, daily minus 1668 lots, net short positions are 13033 lots, daily minus 240 lots, long and short are reduced, and net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On September 21, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2010 fell slightly
.
The increasing domestic production of alumina and the high level of port inventories have led to weak alumina prices; The high profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has stimulated the gradual release of smelter capacity, coupled with a slight decline in domestic aluminum production month-on-month, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
However, market demand has performed well, and the current import window is in a preliminary closing state, and domestic inventories have fallen sharply recently; At the same time, the downstream aluminum rod warehouse continues to degrade, currently reaching a low level in the year, and there is an expectation of recovery in future market demand, which is expected to drive the operating rate of aluminum enterprises to rebound, which has strong
support for aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2010 contract shadow of Shanghai aluminum tested the previous high, and the daily MACD indicator golden cross, it is expected to be strong in the short term
.