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On Wednesday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded, with the highest 20480 yuan / ton, the lowest 19875 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 20375 yuan, up 1.
7% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum is strongly volatile, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2730 US dollars / ton, down 1.
87%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) The RBA kept interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.
1% and continued to buy $4 billion of government bonds per week until at least mid-February
2022.
(2) In the first three quarters of 2021, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region imported 361,000 tons of alumina, an increase of 19.
9% year-on-year; It was valued at RMB770 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.
7%.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19790-19830 yuan / ton, the average price was 19810 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan
from the previous trading day.
The cargo holder shipped at a small price, and the receiver purchased at a low price, the enthusiasm was higher than the previous day, and the overall transaction was
acceptable.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 138343 tons, daily increase of 375 tons; LME aluminium stocks 1028325 tonnes, down 7,200 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2112 contract held 137863 lots, minus 4624 lots per day, short positions 133165 lots, daily minus 2950 lots, net long positions 4698 lots, daily minus 1013, long short and net long both reduced
.
Market research and judgment: At present, the market has digested the expectation of tapering bond purchases, and paid attention to clues about tapering and when to raise interest rates
.
If it does not meet expectations, the dollar may retreat
in the short term.
Fundamentals, the cost of electricity for aluminum enterprises is still at a high level, superimposed alumina prices continue to rise, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum is still supported
.
The previous power and production restriction policy is still being implemented, and the subsequent supply side is still expected to reduce production; The demand side has been boosted by the deep downward revision of aluminum prices, and the downstream operating rate has recently rebounded
.
However, short-term market sentiment will stabilize to wait for time to digest, and aluminum prices may fluctuate
widely.
Technically, the AL2112 contract hourly MACD indicator shows a red bar expansion, focusing on the 19250 line of support
.
