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On Wednesday, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell back to a high level, with the highest 19260 yuan / ton, the lowest 18860 yuan / ton, and the close of 18885 yuan / ton, down 0.
92% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum fluctuated at a low level, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2438 US dollars / ton, down 0.
41%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) According to foreign news on July 20, data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on Tuesday showed that global primary aluminum production fell to 5.
549 million tons in June, and production was revised to 5.
75 million tons
in May.
China's primary aluminum production is expected to fall to 3.
245 million mt in June, revised to 3.
35 million mt
in May, IAI reported.
(2) The Zhengzhou Flood Control and Drought Control Headquarters announced that the current flood prevention and disaster control situation is grim, and the municipal flood prevention command has decided to upgrade the flood control level II.
emergency response to level
I from 16:00 on July 20.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19070-19110 yuan / ton, the average price was 19090 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holder maintained a high price for shipments, the receiver purchased at a low price on demand, and the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was average, and the transaction activity was better than the previous day
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 90,259 tons, with a daily increase of 2,219 tons; LME stocks were 1434125 tonnes, down 6,225 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2109 contract held 150926 lots, with a daily increase of 8194 lots, short positions of 147550 lots, a daily increase of 6985 lots, and a net long position of 3376 lots, a daily increase of 3195 lots
.
Both long and net long increased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2019 contract high declined
.
The recent worsening of the global epidemic and the rise of risk aversion in the market have strengthened the US dollar again
.
Domestically, a small electrolytic aluminum plant in Henan was shut down due to flood intrusion, involving a production capacity of 40,000-50,000 tons; Some aluminum ingot processing plants were forced to limit production, and the willingness to take goods was not active, and the transaction was relatively light
.
In addition, the rain also hindered
the transportation of scrap aluminum.
At present, aluminum ingot inventory has not fully entered the accumulation cycle, and the overall transaction has improved compared with last week
.
The aluminum rod showed a small accumulation, mainly due to the weak downstream orders and the high aluminum base price, the terminal fear of heights, and the overall transaction was flat
.
Overall, the current aluminum consumption has signs of weakening to the off-season, but it has not fully entered the accumulation cycle
.
The short-term Shanghai aluminum market may run
at a high level.
