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On Monday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai copper rushed back down, with the highest 71,500 yuan / ton and the lowest 70,400 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 70,830 yuan / ton, up 0.
37% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME copper pulled back slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 9685.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
62%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States fell to 66.
8 in November from 71.
7 in October, lower than the median expected value of 72.
5
.
(2) China's CPI rose 1.
5% year-on-year in October, an increase of 0.
8 percentage points; PPI rose 13.
5% year-on-year in October, an increase of 2.
8 percentage points
.
(3) On November 12, China's copper concentrate port inventory was 889,000 tons, an increase of 135,000 tons from last week; China's copper ore processing fee TC was 62.
8 US dollars / dry ton, unchanged
from last week.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 71300-71700 yuan / ton, the average price is 71500 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
per day.
The holder adjusts the price and shipments, the receiver is slightly cautious in bullishness, just needs to buy, the trading atmosphere is general, and the overall trading volume is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts during the day was 17,511 tons, an increase of 3,452 tons per day; LME copper stocks were 95,700 tons, down 4,600 tons per day, down for 8 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2112 contract 86677, -33, short positions 105264, -354, net positions -18587, -929, long and short decreased, net short increased
.
Market research and judgment: the US inflation data is strong, increasing the market's willingness to hedge inflation, but the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in advance has increased, and the US dollar index has strengthened; The weakening of domestic coal prices has dragged down non-ferrous metal prices, and the difference between CPI and PPI scissors has expanded, and the risk of policy regulation and control has increased
.
Fundamentally, the growth of upstream copper processing fees has slowed down, and the tight supply of cold materials still exists, coupled with the sharp decline in sulfuric acid prices, the pressure on refinery production has increased, and the output of refined copper in the future market is expected to remain limited
.
At present, downstream demand is weak, but the inflow of imported copper has decreased, and domestic inventories have maintained stable operation; However, foreign countries still maintain a relatively obvious destocking, overseas supply is tight, LME copper spot premium maintained a high level, which supported copper prices
.
