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On Thursday, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai copper rushed back down, with the highest 52850 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 52240 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 52340 yuan / ton, up 0.
17% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper opened low, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 6972.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
34%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) U.
S.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that it is possible to reach an agreement
with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on a stimulus package to deal with the impact of the new crown epidemic.
(2) The UK agreed to restart Brexit trade talks with the EU, and the two sides will start intensive negotiations in London starting Thursday afternoon, which will be held
daily.
(3) China's total copper output in September was 1.
8138 million tons, down 6.
93% month-on-month and up 14.
3% year-on-year, and the cumulative output from January to September was 14.
7393 million tons, down 8.
9%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On October 22, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 52280-52450 yuan / ton, with an average price of 52365 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 120 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the willingness of cargo holders to cash out is obvious, downstream consumption is weak, wait-and-see is the mainstay, and the transaction is very small
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 64,081 tons on Thursday, down 749 tons per day; On October 21, LME copper stocks were 181,650 tonnes, down 1,525 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2012 contracts were 74968 lots, an increase of 1675 lots per day, short positions were 65202 lots, a daily increase of 3576 lots, a net long position of 9766 lots, a daily decrease of 1901 lots, both long and short increases, and net long decreased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2012 rushed back down
on October 22.
The US White House hinted that it hoped to reach a stimulus deal within two days, and the UK and the EU resumed Brexit trade negotiations, and the dollar index continued to be weak; At the same time, the market purchasing sentiment heated up after the holiday, coupled with the expectation of recovery in demand in the fourth quarter, copper inventories have fallen in recent days, which has supported copper prices
.
However, the supply of upstream copper mines has gradually recovered, and the copper mine TC has recently rebounded slightly, and domestic smelters are actively preparing materials, and it is expected that smelting output will gradually increase; Coupled with the fact that the overseas epidemic is still not under control, the outlook for external demand is under greater pressure, limiting the upward momentum of copper prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the Shanghai copper 2012 contract increased significantly, and there was pressure above 53000, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
