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On Monday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai copper rose sharply, with the highest 59430 yuan / ton and the lowest 58320 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 59280 yuan / ton, up 1.
01% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper stopped falling and rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $8027 / ton, up 1.
17%
on a daily basis.
Market Focus: (1) Yellen will reaffirm her commitment to the market-determined exchange rate at Tuesday's hearing, while Yellen will also make it clear that the United States will not seek a weak dollar to gain a competitive advantage
.
(2) As of January 15, China's copper ore processing fee TC was $45.
8/dry ton, down $1.
1/ton
weekly.
(3) China's spot inventory of electrolytic copper on January 15 was 166,900 tons, down 01,400 tons
from January 11.
Spot analysis: On January 18, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 58550-58800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 58675 yuan / ton, down 960 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the supply of goods is tight, the willingness of cargo holders to raise prices is high, the downstream demand is limited, and the transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 26,642 tons, an increase of 1,137 tons per day; On January 15, LME copper stocks were 99,950 tons, down 1,300 tons per day, falling for four consecutive days
.
As of the week ended January 15, the previous Shanghai copper inventory was reported at 73,685 tons, down 8,657 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2103 contract are 73919 lots, a daily increase of 1990 lots, short positions are 79408 lots, a daily increase of 2638 lots, a net short position of 5489 lots, a daily increase of 648 lots, long and short increases, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2103 rose sharply on January 18
.
The US economy is expected to grow by 6.
6% this year, boosting the US dollar index
.
Domestic copper mine supply maintained a tight pattern, copper ore processing fees TC continued to be reduced, and copper smelting costs were high; However, the implementation of the new policy for scrap copper has greatly increased the import volume, and the price difference between refined waste has widened, and the substitution role will gradually increase; At the end of the year, the downstream market inventory willingness continued to decline in recent days, but there is still resistance
above copper prices as demand is expected to gradually fade in the off-season.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2103 contract increased its position, and the mainstream short increased its position more, and it is expected to fluctuate
in a wide short-term range.
