The main force of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, and the downstream market demand maintained a good performance

Market focus: (1) It is reported that the UK and the EU have reached a framework for a post-Brexit trade agreement and are currently finalizing the wording
of the agreement.
British Prime Minister Johnson is expected to announce Brexit news at 19:00 Beijing time on the
24th.
(2) The US PCE price index in November actually released 1.
1% y/y, 1.
2% expected, and 1.
2% in the previous month; The core PCE price index in the United States actually released 1.
4% y/y in November, 1.
4% expected, and 1.
4%
in the previous month.
(3) Codelco Chile and Chuquicamata copper miners will reach a collective bargaining agreement
.

Spot analysis: On December 24, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 58040-58240 yuan / ton, with an average price of 58140 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 570 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the price of cargo holders was in a good mood, a small number of low-priced sources were transacted, and the downstream just needed to purchase, and the transaction was slightly
deadlocked.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 29,304 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 977 tons; On December 23, LME copper stocks were 119375 tons, down 225 tons per day, falling for 12 consecutive days
.

Main position: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2102 contract are 75996 lots, minus 33 lots per day, short positions are 81040 lots, daily increase of 844 lots, net short positions are 5044 lots, daily increase of 877 lots, more short increases, net short increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2102 rebounded
slightly on December 24.
Concerns have recently increased due to the emergence of a variant of the new coronavirus in the UK; However, the framework of the Brexit negotiations, the strong rebound of the pound, and the weaker-than-expected US economic data made the US index weak again
.
The supply of upstream domestic copper mines is tight, and the copper processing fee TC is low, which makes the cost high, but the inflow of high-grade scrap copper increases, and the substitution of scrap copper is expected to increase
.
Downstream market demand maintained a good performance, Shanghai copper inventories showed a trend of decomposition, and there was support
below copper prices.
Technically, the mainstream positions of the Shanghai copper 2102 contract increased and decreased more, focusing on the 20-day moving average support, and it is expected to recover slightly in the short term
.