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On Monday, the main 2011 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went high, with the highest 51350 yuan / ton and the lowest 50470 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price was 51220 yuan / ton, up 0.
35% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper fluctuated higher, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 6615 US dollars / ton, up 0.
96%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) U.
S.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that another pandemic stimulus package is likely as House Democrats try to push ahead with a smaller $2.
4 trillion aid package
.
(2) China's imports of copper ore and its concentrate in August were 1.
5867 million tons, down 11.
6% month-on-month and 12.
58%
year-on-year.
(3) China's refined copper imports in August were 489,000 tons, down 14% month-on-month and up 65.
82%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On September 28, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 50910-51050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 50980 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 140 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the willingness of cargo holders to exchange cash is strong, and the downstream continues to purchase at bargains, and the supply and demand tug-of-war transaction is general
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 53,116 tons on Monday, a daily decrease of 2,127 tons, a decline of 6 consecutive days; On September 25, LME copper stocks were 73,625 tons, a daily decrease of 2,700 tons, a five-day
decline.
As of the week ended September 25, the previous Shanghai copper inventory was reported 170464 tons, a weekly decrease of 22,883 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2011 contracts were 81787 lots, minus 1730 lots per day, short positions were 68177 lots, daily minus 805 lots, net long positions were 13610 lots, daily minus 925 lots, long and short increased, net long increased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2011 opened low and went high on September 28
.
Optimism about the recovery of the US economy and renewed hopes for a new round of fiscal stimulus have heightened risk sentiment and the dollar index has slowed
.
The upstream copper mine supply is gradually recovering, and China's smelting output is gradually increasing, but the copper processing fee TC is still at a low level, making the smelting cost still high
.
Recently, inventories in both markets have declined, superimposed on the expansion of import losses, some sources of goods flowing overseas, and the willingness to replenish before the holiday has increased, and Shanghai copper inventories have fallen even more, which has strengthened the support for copper prices
.
However, the lack of improvement in domestic market demand, the operating rate of copper enterprises continued to decline month-on-month, and the phenomenon of low peak season was obvious, limiting the upside of
copper prices.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2011 contract reduced its position and rebounded, focusing on the resistance at the 51400 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
