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On Wednesday, the main 2108 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and fluctuated, with the highest 69030 yuan / ton and the lowest 68280 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 68870 yuan / ton, down 0.
48% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper opened low and rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $9402 / ton, up 0.
01%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The US CPI recorded an annual rate of 5.
4% in June, 4.
9% expected, and 5.
0% in the previous month, continuing to hit a new high since August 2008; The US core CPI recorded an annual rate of 4.
5% in June vs 4.
0% expected and 3.
8% in the previous month, a new high
in nearly 30 years.
(2) On July 12, Li Keqiang pointed out that comprehensive measures to ease the pressure
of rising commodity prices.
Spot analysis: On July 14, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 68700-68880 yuan / ton, the average price was 68790 yuan / ton, down 585 yuan / ton
daily.
The circulating supply continued to shrink, the downstream receiving was weak, and the buying sentiment was poor, which inhibited the transaction performance
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai was 71,639 tons, a daily decrease of 1,527 tons, and a decrease of 21 consecutive days; LME copper stocks were 221,800 tons, an increase of 1,225 tons per day, an increase of four consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2108 contract 74012, +779, short positions 78903, +620, net positions -4891, +159, long and short increased, net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: the US CPI data in June was higher than expected, the US dollar index climbed sharply, continue to pay attention to the latest statement of the Federal Reserve; However, China's June trade data performed brightly, which was positive for risk sentiment
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continued to grow, and copper ore processing fees TC steadily rebounded, indicating that the tension in copper mines improved; The dumping price is favorable but the quantity is limited, and the quantity of subsequent batches is still uncertain, which still needs to be paid attention to
.
Refinery overhauls have increased recently, production remains constrained, and inventories remain declining; However, the import window is almost open, the pressure of supply imports has increased, and the upward momentum of copper prices is limited
.
Technically, the Shanghai Copper 2108 contract remained range-bound
.
