The main force of Shanghai copper has soared sharply and is expected to adjust short-term shocks

Market focus: (1) On July 13, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world exceeded 13 million, and the cumulative number of
deaths exceeded 570,000.
(2) Chile's Antofagasta Minerals Zaldivar copper miners said Friday that the copper miner voted to go on strike after rejecting the pay deal
.
(3) Peruvian mining companies are expected to restore 100% capacity
by the end of July after the government ended a nationwide anti-epidemic lockdown last week, said Peruvian energy and mining minister Susana Vilca.

Spot analysis: On July 13, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 52700-53300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 53000 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 2390 yuan / ton
.
Holders actively exchange cash at high prices, striving to complete transactions, buyers are afraid of heights, and there is a lack of buying orders
in market transactions.
However, in the face of the approaching delivery, the price difference between the current month and the next month has changed, and the near weak and far strong pattern makes the holders unwilling to discount the transaction, if this pattern is maintained before delivery, the spot quotation will stalemate at the current quotation level, which is difficult to suppress the price and raise the water
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 47,426 tons, an increase of 6,559 tons per day; On July 10, LME copper stocks were 181075 tons, down 4,125 tons per day, down 18 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2008 contracts were 72992 lots, minus 2653 lots per day, short positions were 77237 lots, daily minus 979 lots, net short positions were 4245 lots, daily increase of 1674 lots, long and short were reduced, and net short increased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2008 soared on July 13
.
The epidemic situation in South America is still fermenting, and Chilean copper mines plan to strike, resulting in the expectation of tightening copper supply; The tight production cost of raw materials has moved up, and the maintenance and production reduction of domestic smelters have increased, and the output of electrolytic copper is expected to further decline; And the copper import window is closed, and the import volume of refined copper is suppressed, which has a strong
support for copper prices.
However, downstream demand has weakened recently, domestic copper rod processing fees have been reduced, and Shanghai copper inventories have rebounded; In addition, the spread of refined scrap prices has widened, stimulating the demand for copper scrap imports to replace refined copper, and limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
In terms of spot, holders actively exchange cash at high prices and strive to complete transactions, buyers are afraid of heights, and there is a lack of buying orders in market transactions
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2008 contract broke through last year's high, facing the pressure of technical correction at the 53300 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2008 contract can operate in the range of 51500-53000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 300 yuan / ton
each.