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On Monday, the main 2111 contract of Shanghai copper rose sharply, with the highest 70350 yuan / ton and the lowest 68930 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 70260 yuan / ton, up 2.
06% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper continued to rise, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $9469.
5 / ton, up 1.
28%
per day.
Market focus: (1) The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by only 194,000 in September, significantly less than the market's expectation of 500,000 and the smallest increase since January this year
.
The unemployment rate came in at 4.
8% in September, better than market expectations of 5.
1% and the best level
since February 2020.
(2) According to Mysteel data, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the Chinese market on October 8 was 92,400 tons, an increase of 06,200 tons from September 27 and an increase of 12,900 tons from September 30
.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 69780-70070 yuan / ton, the average price is 69925 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton
per day.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts within the day was 10,034 tons, a daily decrease of 548 tons; LME copper stocks were 197,650 tons, down 1,600 tons per day, down for 9 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2111 contract 84738, +10395, short positions 94320, +13340, net positions -9582, -2945, long and short increased, net space increased
.
Market research: the US non-farm payrolls data recorded the largest decline in three months, indicating that the recovery of the labor market is not strong, and the US dollar index is weak; And the high-level meeting between China and the United States has boosted market risk sentiment
.
Fundamentals, the labor problem of upstream South American copper mines eased, the supply grew steadily, copper concentrate processing fees continued to rise, and raw material tension continued to improve
.
Domestic refineries have a high willingness to schedule production under high profits, and the impact of power curtailment on the smelting end is small, and the output shows an increasing trend; The power rationing has a greater impact on downstream processing enterprises, and demand is dragged
down.
However, in the near future, the trend of destocking at home and abroad has been maintained, and the low level of inventories has supported copper prices
.
