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On Tuesday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated at a low level, with the highest 66150 yuan / ton and the lowest 65620 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price was 65870 yuan / ton, up 0.
27% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME copper fluctuated operation, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $8854 / ton, down 0.
20%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods in the first quarter was 8.
47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.
2%, of which exports increased by 38.
7% year-on-year, imports increased by 19.
3%, and the trade surplus was 759.
29 billion yuan, an increase of 690.
6%
over the same period last year.
(2) At 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, the United States will release March CPI data, and the market expects unseasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 2.
5%, higher than 1.
7%
in the previous month.
(3) According to my nonferrous metal network, on April 12, China's electrolytic copper market inventory was 333,800 tons, an increase of 016000 tons from last Monday and a decrease of 06,400 tons
from last Thursday.
Spot analysis: On April 13, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 65620-65760 yuan / ton, with an average price of 65690 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
per day.
The willingness to raise prices is strong, downstream on-demand procurement, and trading continues to stalemate
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 118417 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 2,054 tons per day; On April 12, LME copper stocks were 165625 tons, an increase of 2,525 tons per day, an increase of 4 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract are 67084 lots, minus 559 lots, short positions are 73108 lots, daily increase of 42 lots, net short positions are 6024 lots, daily increase of 601 lots, more short increases, net short increases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2105 low volatility on April 13
.
China's first-quarter import and export data performed strongly, and market optimism rose as overseas markets recovered; However, the US dollar was supported by inflation and retail sales data that were about to be released, and inflation expectations were rising
.
Upstream Chile's poor copper mine production at the beginning of the year, coupled with the recent closure of the border due to the epidemic, the tightening of domestic copper mine supply and the lower TC processing fee, put pressure on smelter production, and refined copper production is expected to decline
slightly in April.
At present, downstream demand is still weak, and domestic copper inventories have not yet entered a downward channel, but the domestic demand season is still expected, and copper prices continue to adjust.
Technically, the mainstream position of the Shanghai copper 2105 contract increased and decreased more, focusing on the support of the 65000 mark, and it is expected that the short-term range will be adjusted
.
