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On Thursday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai copper fell sharply, with the highest of 52310 yuan / ton, the lowest 50580 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 50610 yuan / ton, down 2.
92% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper continued to fall, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 6325 US dollars / ton, down 1.
09%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) China's GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.
2%, turning the growth rate from negative to positive; GDP in the first half of the year was 456614 billion yuan, down 1.
6%
year-on-year at comparable prices.
(2) U.
S.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on July 15 that the United States will impose visa sanctions
on some Huawei employees.
He also said that the United States will announce new visa restrictions
on technology companies such as Huawei later local time.
Spot analysis: On July 16, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 51080-51380 yuan / ton, with an average price of 51230 yuan / ton, a daily drop of 1230 yuan / ton
.
Traders are back active, with low premiums attracting them to the market
.
If the decline slows down, the downstream market buying will gradually pick up and rise, and the premium will show a stable and firm trend before the delivery source flows out
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 65,177 tons on Thursday, an increase of 153 tons per day, an increase of 4 consecutive days; On July 15, LME copper stocks were 166,450 tons, down 1,775 tons per day, down 21 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contracts were 74339 lots, a daily increase of 1001 lots, short positions were 73065 lots, a daily increase of 748 lots, a net long position of 1274 lots, a daily increase of 253 lots, both long and short increases, and net long increases
.
The expansion of US sanctions against Huawei and interference in China's Hong Kong-related issues and disputes in the South China Sea have led to increased tensions between the two countries and renewed market concerns.
At the same time, the current downstream demand has entered the traditional off-season, coupled with the continuous expansion of the cost price difference, the substitution role of copper scrap has gradually emerged, and the pressure on copper prices has increased
.
However, China's GDP growth rate turned from negative to positive in the second quarter, global stimulus policies and economic recovery trends, and market sentiment is still expected to pick up; At the same time, South America is disrupted by the epidemic, and it is expected that the tight supply of copper mines in the third quarter will continue, copper smelting production will continue to be suppressed, and the support for copper prices will still exist
.
On the spot side, traders are back active, with low premiums attracting them to the market
.
Technically, the trading volume of the Shanghai copper 2009 contract has increased significantly, testing the 10 moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term pullback will be volatile
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2009 contract can operate lightly in the range of 50,000-51,500 yuan / ton, with a stop loss of 200 yuan / ton
each.
