The main force of Shanghai copper can move relatively strong when it opens high and goes up

Market focus: (1) During the three-day Dragon Boat Festival, a total of 48.
809 million domestic tourists were received nationwide, a year-on-year recovery of 50.
9%; Tourism revenue reached 12.
28 billion yuan, a year-on-year recovery of 31.
2%.

(2) Chile's mining minister pointed out that Chile's copper production is estimated to decline by 200,000 tons, accounting for about
3.
5% of total production in 2019.
(3) The Peruvian government announced the extension of the state of emergency until July 31, this decree is only for 7 regions of the country, and the rest of the country will be lifted from social distancing
from July 1.

Spot analysis: On June 29, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 48670-48870 yuan / ton, with an average price of 48770 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 615 yuan / ton
.
In the last two days of the end of the month, the market funds and settlement were nearing the end, and the market reacted cautiously; Small and medium-sized traders have slightly relaxed their quotations under the exchange of cash, low-priced sources are favored by traders, and most downstream fear of heights and wait for the market after the cross-month period
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 36,417 tons on Monday, a daily decrease of 2,124 tons, a 7-day decline; On June 26, LME copper stocks were 221675 tons, down 3,975 tons per day, down for 8 consecutive days
.
As of the week of June 24, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 99,971 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,998 tons, a decline for six consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2008 contract are 75215 lots, with a daily increase of 3360 lots, short positions of 82340 lots, a daily increase of 4698 lots, net short positions of 7125 lots, a daily increase of 1338 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2008 opened high and went
high on June 29.
A second outbreak of the epidemic in the Americas, a surge in the number of new confirmed cases, and the weak performance of China's Dragon Boat tourism data have suppressed market optimism and put pressure
on copper prices.
However, the supply of upstream copper mines is tightening, South American copper mine production has been disrupted by the epidemic again, and the upward shift in smelting costs has suppressed refined copper production; Moreover, the operating rate of domestic downstream copper enterprises remained stable, and the demand performance was stable, driving the continued dematerialization of Shanghai copper inventories, and copper prices could move strongly
.
In terms of spot, small and medium-sized traders have slightly relaxed their quotations under the exchange of cash, low-priced sources are favored by traders, and most downstream fear of heights wait to enter the market
after crossing the month.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2008 contract increased significantly, standing at the 48000 mark, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2008 contract can be long around 48,000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 47,800 yuan / ton
.