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On Tuesday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated downward, with the highest 14435 yuan / ton and the lowest 14195 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14220 yuan / ton, down 0.
94% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME aluminum fluctuated slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum reported 1781 US dollars / ton, down 0.
08%
on the day.
Market Focus: (1) U.
S
.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that non-accounting companies from China and other countries will be delisted from the American stock exchange by the end of 2021.
(2) Trump said China had not fulfilled its promise to buy more U.
S.
goods in the phase one trade deal signed in January, though he said purchases should increase
next year.
(3) China's July vehicle production and sales increased by 21.
9% and 16.
48%
y/y, respectively.
Spot analysis: On August 11, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14450-14490 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14470 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton
per day.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 120567 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 1981 tons, an increase of 6 consecutive days; On August 10, LME aluminum stocks were 1,621,400 tons, a daily decrease of 5,450 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contracts are 76326 lots, with a daily increase of 1236 lots, short positions of 87533 lots, daily decrease of 3367 lots, net short positions of 11207 lots, daily reduction of 4603 lots, more increase and short, net space reduction
.
Market research and judgment: On August 11, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2009 fluctuated
downward.
The lack of consensus on the new round of stimulus policies in the United States will cause resistance to the recovery of the US economy, the US dollar index stops falling and rises, and the conflict between China and the United States intensifies, resulting in a return to risk aversion in the market; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has gradually recovered, and the downstream demand has gradually weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory has rebounded slightly in recent days, which has put greater pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, global monetary policy remained accommodative, and China's economic data performed strongly; And the overall inventory is still at a low level, and the demand in the future market is expected to pick up, and the pressure on the supply side is still limited
.
Technically, the mainstream position of Shanghai's main 2009 contract increased and decreased, and the bottom of the daily KDJ indicator diverged, and it is expected to stop the short-term adjustment
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long lightly around 14200 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14050 yuan / ton
.
