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On Tuesday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down, with the highest 19265 yuan / ton, the lowest 18760 yuan / ton, closing at 19005 yuan, up 0.
26% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fell in shock, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2589 / ton, down 0.
4%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) According to Mysteel statistics, as of the end of October, China's electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 43.
08 million tons / year, flat month-on-month, up 2.
6%
year-on-year.
Operating capacity was 37.
794 million tons, down 300,000 tons/year from September, down 0.
8% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year; In October, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 87.
7%, down 0.
7 percentage points from the previous month and 4.
2 percentage points
from the same period last year.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 18930-18970 yuan / ton, the average price was 18950 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan
from the previous trading day.
The cargo holder lowered the shipment, the receiver pressed the price and waited, the enthusiasm for buying was not good, and the overall transaction was flat
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 150971 tons, daily increase of 3179 tons; LME aluminum stocks 1000375 tons, down 3,675 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2112 contract 122842 lots, -1868 lots, short positions 123782 lots, -4071 lots, net short positions 940 lots, -1550 lots, long and short and net short are reduced
.
Market research and judgment: under the influence of the dual-control policy, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to be limited, and the daily output of primary aluminum decreased
for 6 consecutive months.
Recently, the heating season and the dry period in the southwest region have ushered in, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may continue to be weak, but some power relief areas have a certain probability of resuming production, but it is difficult to release
on a large scale in the short term.
On the demand side, low aluminum prices drive market replenishment demand, electrolytic aluminum out of the warehouse slightly increased, inventory from accumulation to destocking, short-term consumption is expected to usher in a marginal recovery, the recent focus on inventory changes
.
Short-term aluminum prices or wide fluctuations are dominant
.
