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On Monday, the main 2201 contract of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down, the highest 19400 yuan / ton, the lowest 18940 yuan / ton, closing at 19095 yuan, up 1.
81% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fluctuated at a low level, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2665 / ton, down 0.
67%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) As of November 22, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
021 million tons, down 15,000 tons from last Thursday (November 18) and 618,000 tons
in the same period last year.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 18320-18360 yuan / ton, the average price was 18340 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan
from the previous trading day.
The cargo holder sells at a high price, the receiver buys at a low price, the overall trading atmosphere is general, and the transaction demand is relatively light
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 203671 tons, daily increase of 1258 tons; LME aluminum inventory was 948,650 tons, a daily decrease of 4,200 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2201 contract 140116 lots, -3660 lots, short positions 133003 lots, -1721 lots, net long positions 7113 lots, -4609 lots
.
Market research and judgment: Recently, US employment continued to improve, high inflation data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve boosted the strong operation of the US dollar index, which continued to suppress
aluminum prices.
Fundamentals, the power restrictions and production restrictions in the early production areas are expected to be loosened, but the short-term supply is difficult to increase, and some production areas have once again reduced production and stopped, and it is expected that the supply side will still be tight before the end of the heating season; The raw material alumina and the electricity cost of the production area have been reduced, and the dynamic changes
in the cost of electrolytic aluminum continue to be paid attention to.
The latest data electrolytic aluminum is once again destocked, superimposed on real estate policy is expected to relax and coal trend stabilize, boosting market sentiment, but the short-term aluminum price rise is not substantially price driven, and short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely
.
