The main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, mainly short-term or high-level shocks

Market focus: (1) Goldman Sachs once again lowered its US economic growth forecast for this year and next, as fiscal support measures are expected to be reduced by the end of next year, and the recovery of consumer spending will be slower
than previously expected.
The bank lowered its 2021 U.
S.
GDP growth forecast to 5.
6% from 5.
7% previously, and lowered its 2022 growth forecast to 4%
from 4.
4% previously.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 23190-23230 yuan / ton, the average price was 23210 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan
from the previous trading day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 104809 tons, with a daily increase of 1743 tons; LME stocks were 1137675 tonnes, down 12,550 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 129132 lots, minus 1456 lots per day, 148108 short positions per day, 5218 lots per day, 18976 net short positions, 1797 lots per day, long and short and net short were reduced
.

Market Analysis: The recent surge in energy prices has prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets, and the market expects FED to announce a tapering of bond purchases next month, and the dollar index has risen, but the impact on aluminum prices is relatively small
.
The dual control of domestic energy consumption continued to make efforts, Qinghai and Gansu shut down part of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the supply of aluminum market continued to contract, and the production cost of electrolytic aluminum was raised, and the performance of external aluminum was relatively strong, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, at present, domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated slightly, and the fourth batch of reserve aluminum has flowed into the market, and there is pressure above aluminum prices, and short-term aluminum prices or high shocks are dominant
.