The main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and the short-term shock was strong

Market focus: (1) During the three-day Dragon Boat Festival, a total of 48.
809 million domestic tourists were received nationwide, a year-on-year recovery of 50.
9%; Tourism revenue reached 12.
28 billion yuan, a year-on-year recovery of 31.
2%.

(2) On June 29, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory fell by 04,000 tons from last Wednesday to 718,000 tons, and the inventory continued to degrade after the holiday, but the decline narrowed
.
(3) China's alumina imports in May were 268573 tons, a year-on-year increase of nearly four times, an increase of 22.
07%
month-on-month.

Spot analysis: On June 29, spot A00 aluminum reported 14070-14110 yuan / ton, the average price was 14090 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton
per day.
Although a large household announced a spot purchase plan during the day, the quotation was low, it was difficult for the holder to agree, and the actual transaction of the purchase plan was not much
.
The trading performance of traders is deadlocked, and the transaction activity in Wuxi is significantly higher than that in
Shanghai.
Downstream replenishment during the day, because the price increased by nearly 100 yuan compared with before the holiday, slightly afraid of heights, which was less than expected
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 90,404 tons, a daily decrease of 1,632 tons, and a drop of 8 consecutive days; On June 26, LME aluminum stocks were 1652025 tons, an increase of 14,275 tons
per day.
As of the week of June 24, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 223715 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,988 tons, a continuous decline of 14 weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract were 97319 lots, an increase of 5466 lots per day, short positions were 115099 lots, a daily increase of 3593 lots, net short positions were 17780 lots, a daily decrease of 1873 lots, both long and short increased, and net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On June 29, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply in 2008
.
The second outbreak of the epidemic in the Americas, the surge in the number of new confirmed cases, and the weak performance of China's Dragon Boat tourism data have dampened market optimism; At the same time, the aluminum import window continues to open, and the supply of imported sources increases; In addition, the profit recovery of electrolytic aluminum production has stimulated the gradual recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum production, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform strongly, driving Shanghai aluminum inventories to continue to degrade, short-term supply tightness continues, aluminum prices still have upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, although a large household announced a spot purchase plan during the day, the quotation was low, and it was difficult for the holder to agree, and the downstream replenishment
was normal within the day.
Technically, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, testing the resistance at the 13800 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract can be long around 13,700 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 13,600 yuan / ton
.