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On Thursday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, with the highest 18360 yuan / ton and the lowest 17860 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 18320 yuan / ton, up 2.
37% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum continued to rise sharply, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2352.
5 US dollars / ton, up 1.
05%
per day.
Market focus: (1) Powell said policymakers will wait until inflation continues to reach 2% and the labor market fully recovers before considering raising interest rates, both of which are unlikely to be fully met
by the end of 2022.
(2) My nonferrous metal network, on April 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main market was 1.
194 million tons, down 14,000 tons from Monday and 39,000 tons
from last week.
Spot analysis: On April 15, spot A00 aluminum reported 18070-18110 yuan / ton, the average price was 18090 yuan / ton, up 330 yuan / ton
per day.
Cargo holders actively shipped, downstream cautious procurement, large households received goods enthusiasm is general, and the overall transaction turned weak
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 156999 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 673 tons; On April 14, LME stocks were 1833550 tons, down 8,025 tons per day, falling for four consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2105 contract 124141 lots, a daily increase of 2384 lots, a short position of 134282 lots, a daily increase of 242 lots, a net short position of 10141 lots, a daily decrease of 2142 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2105 rose sharply on April 15
.
The US inflation data for March rose sharply, but the Fed said that inflation and employment were still far from reaching its target, and maintaining easing policy weighed
on the dollar index.
At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is basically in a state of full production, the growth space of the operating rate is limited, and under the domestic carbon neutrality goal, Inner Mongolia has limited the production of the aluminum industry, and the supply side is restricted; It is rumored that Xinjiang will also take measures to limit production, but it has not been confirmed, and the market wait-and-see attitude
.
Recently, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have turned into a downward trend, downstream procurement willingness is positive, and the traditional consumption season is gradually emerging, which has strong support for aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum has reduced its position significantly, refreshing a new high in the past decade, and it is expected that the market will be volatile in
the future.
