The main force of Shanghai aluminum rebounded sharply to recover last week's losses

Market focus: (1) At the ECB's monetary policy meeting, the current loose monetary policy was maintained unchanged, and the statement on the exchange rate issue was more moderate than expected
.

Spot analysis: On September 14, spot A00 aluminum reported 14560-14600 yuan / ton, the average price was 14580 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton
daily.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders actively shipped, the receiving sentiment was general, the downstream consumption was not good, and the transaction was still weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 145822 tons, an increase of 7247 tons per day; On September 11, LME aluminum stocks were 1520650 tons, a daily decrease of 3,425 tons, down for 17 consecutive days
.
As of the week of September 11, the previous Shanghai aluminum inventory was reported 251266 tons, a weekly increase of 1913 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contract were 80,400 lots, with a daily increase of 878 lots, short positions of 89,450 lots, a daily increase of 471 lots, a net short position of 9,050 lots, a daily decrease of 407 lots, a long and short increase, and a net space decrease
.

Market research and judgment: On September 14, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2010 rebounded
sharply.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity gradually recovered, it is expected that production will continue to expand in September, the increase in output is estimated to be greater than consumption, and domestic primary aluminum inventories show a slight growth trend, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
However, the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, and the import window is in a preliminary closed state, which will gradually inhibit the inflow of overseas goods; At the same time, the downstream aluminum rod inventory still continues to degrade, currently reaching a low level in the year, and there is an expectation of recovery in the future market demand, which is still expected to drive the operating rate of aluminum companies to recover, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position significantly, recovering last week's decline, and it is expected to be strong in the short term
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 14420-14650 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.