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On Wednesday, the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened low and went low, the highest 19655 yuan / ton, the lowest 19755 yuan / ton, and the close was 19280 yuan / ton, down 465 yuan from the closing price of the previous trading day; As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2448.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
71%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The ILO unemployment rate in the UK for the three months to March was 4.
8%, 4.
9% expected, and 4.
9% in the previous month; Employment increased by 84,000 versus an expected increase of 50,000 and minus 73,000
in the previous month.
The Office for National Statistics said the job market had been largely stable in recent months, with some initial signs of
recovery.
(2) National Development and Reform Commission: At present, it is stepping up the preparation of an action plan for peaking carbon emissions before 2030, and studying and formulating implementation plans
for carbon peaking in industries and fields such as electric power, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, construction, and transportation.
(3) China's imports of primary aluminum, unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April were 281139 tons, higher than 206556 tons in March, an increase of 165.
2% over the same period last year; Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April were 437,285 tons, down 0.
7% from the same period last year, and the cumulative exports from January to April were 1,722,690 tons, an increase of 5.
8%
over the same period last year.
Spot analysis: On May 19, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 19530-19570 yuan / ton, with an average price of 19550 yuan / ton, down 310 yuan
per day.
Holders sell at a high price, middlemen take advantage of the low, and downstream purchases on demand, and the overall transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 178264 tons on Wednesday, down 50 tons from the previous trading day; On 18 May, LME stocks were 1765525 tonnes, down 2,850 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 94696 lots, minus 12494 lots per day, 81860 short positions, minus 12571 lots per day, net long positions 12836 lots, net short to net long, long and short reduced
.
Market research: The UK unemployment rate data unexpectedly superimposed on many Fed officials once again downplayed inflation expectations, and the market's bets on an early interest rate hike cooled down, continuing to drag down the US index
.
On the supply side, the overall price of ore has increased
due to tight supply and the sharp rise in BDI and ocean freight.
The import window has opened again, aluminum imports have increased significantly, and it is expected that the short-term supply pressure will not be obvious
for the time being.
In terms of demand, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is still in a state of decomposition, and the peak season just needs to strongly support aluminum prices
.
Technically, the main 2106 contract day MACD indicator of Shanghai aluminum shows that DIFF breaks through DEA downward, short-term pullback, and long-term bullish thinking remains unchanged
.