The main force of Shanghai aluminum opens high and goes high, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong

Market focus: (1) Senate Republicans proposed a scaled-down stimulus package, and the negotiation deadlock remains unbroken
.
(2) At 2:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the US FOMC will release the minutes of
the July monetary policy meeting.
(3) China's 11th batch of aluminum scrap and scrap imports in 2020 were approved to be 2,610 tons, and a total of 697379 tons
have been released so far this year.
(4) Hydro Brazil bauxite is expected to be shut down for two months due to pipeline maintenance, and the capacity of the Alunrote alumina plant is expected to fall to between
35-45%.

Spot analysis: On August 19, spot A00 aluminum reported 14620-14660 yuan / ton, the average price was 14640 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton
per day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 144403 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 1398 tons; On August 18, LME aluminum stocks were 1590550 tons, an increase of 2,225 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract are 70165 lots, an increase of 81 lots per day, short positions are 86773 lots, a daily increase of 1486 lots, net short positions are 16608 lots, a daily increase of 1405 lots, long and short are increased, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On August 19, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened high and went
high in 2009.
The intensification of US crackdown on Chinese companies, rising tensions between the two countries, increasing market concerns; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has gradually recovered, and the downstream demand has gradually weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory has recently entered the inventory increase cycle, which has put pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, the new crown epidemic in the United States continues to spread, and the stimulus plan remains deadlocked, and the dollar index continues to be weak; At the same time, the Alunrote alumina plant reduced production, and it is expected that the price of alumina will stop falling and stabilize; And the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level overall, and the pressure on the supply side is still limited, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, paying attention to the resistance above the 14800 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long around 14550 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14450 yuan / ton
.