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On Wednesday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum ran weakly, with the highest 21375 yuan / ton, the lowest 20065 yuan / ton, and the close at 20135 yuan, down 4.
62% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum fell sharply, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2749 / ton, down 2.
82%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) The US consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose
in October.
The consumer confidence index rose to 113.
8 from 109.
8 revised upwards in September, the first rise in four months, after market expectations of 108
, data released by the Conference Board.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 20460-20500 yuan / ton, the average price was 20480 yuan / ton, down 380 yuan
from the previous trading day.
The cargo holder looks at the upward adjustment and shipment, the receiver replenishes the goods on demand, the purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the actual transaction is light
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 132384 tons, daily increase of 1026 tons; LME aluminum inventory was 1,055,300 tons, a daily decrease of 9,125 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2112 contract held 139565 lots, with a daily increase of 11118 lots, a short position of 143683 lots, a daily increase of 6920 lots, a net short position of 4118 lots, a daily decrease of 3851 lots, a long and short increase, and a net short decrease
.
Market Judgment: US consumer confidence unexpectedly strengthened in October, concerns about high inflation were overshadowed by an improving labor market outlook, suggesting that economic growth is picking up after a turbulent third quarter, while the market pays attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve, monetary tightening expectations do not change, and the US index performs to the upside
.
Domestically, thermal coal continued to plummet, the cost support logic of Shanghai aluminum weakened and aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, and the market was worried about aluminum market demand, triggering a continuous correction
in aluminum prices.
However, at present, aluminum prices have entered the loss range of some aluminum plants, and some regions have implemented peak shifts, and the long-term restrictions on the supply side may make the downward space for aluminum prices to continue to be limited
.
Technically, the AL2112 contract 1-hour MACD indicator shows a red bar turning green bar, with a weak
short-term trend.