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On Thursday, the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded low, with a maximum of 23,880 yuan / ton, a minimum of 23,025 yuan / ton, and a close of 23,615 yuan, down 0.
4% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $3109 / ton, up 1.
8%
from the previous session.
Market focus: (1) According to the survey of Mysteel aluminum profile team, the operating rate of China's aluminum profile sample enterprises in September was 51.
14%, down 0.
74% month-on-month and 2.
5%
year-on-year.
(2) The Fed released the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting showing that the FOMC may launch Taper (reduced QE) in mid-November or mid-December 2021, and the tapering program may end
in mid-2022.
(3) As of October 14, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 910,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from this Monday (October 11), and 716,000 tons
in the same period last year.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 23210-23250 yuan / ton, the average price was 23230 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan
from the previous trading day.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 111840 tons, a daily increase of 6156 tons; LME stocks were 1126550 tonnes, down 1,950 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2111 contract held 116175 lots, minus 5550 lots per day, short positions 127797 lots, daily reduction of 7131 lots, net short positions of 11622 lots, daily reduction of 2968 lots, long short and net short both reduced
.
Market research: The latest inflation data in the United States showed a strong rise in prices, and the minutes of the FED September meeting confirmed that the tapering of bond purchases will begin soon, and the dollar index strengthened
.
Domestically, the dual control of energy consumption continues to make efforts, the impact of power rationing expands, the supply of aluminum market shrinks, and the high and firm operation of thermal coal makes the production cost of electrolytic aluminum be raised, superimposed on the external pan aluminum performance is relatively strong, overseas demand performance is good, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, the short-term climbing inventory and downstream operating rate have continued to decline, causing the market to worry about weak consumption, and aluminum prices are under pressure above, and short-term aluminum prices or high volatility are dominant
.
