The main force of Shanghai aluminum is running strongly, and the market has entered a stage of high volatility

Market focus: (1) From January to June, China's export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2,364,118.
5 tons, an increase of 10.
7%
compared with the same period last year.
(2) US inflation data for June surged again and far exceeded market expectations, indicating that rising commodity and labor costs continue to exacerbate inflationary pressures
.
The US CPI rose 0.
9% month-on-month in June, the highest since June 2008, and is expected to rise 0.
5%; The CPI rose 5.
4% year-on-year, continuing to hit a new high since August 2008, and is expected to rise by 4.
9%.

Core CPI rose 0.
9% month-on-month and 4.
5% year-on-year, the biggest gain since November 1991
.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19120-19160 yuan / ton, the average price was 19140 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan
daily.
The holder adjusts the price and sells the goods to realize the cash, and the receiver purchases on demand at a low price, and the transaction activity is weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 79,896 tons, with a daily increase of 469 tons; LME stocks were 1,472,800 tonnes, down 7,350 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2108 contract held 136867 lots, with a daily increase of 2941 lots, short positions of 130930 lots, a daily increase of 3045 lots, and a net long position of 5937 lots, a daily increase of 1154 lots
.
Both long and short and net long increased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2018 contract soared and fell
.
The US CPI rose the most since June 2008 in June, indicating that inflationary pressures continue to build
.
A Fed official declared that the Fed should cut back on bond purchases in the near future, and the dollar index fluctuated to the upside
.
From January to June, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 2,364,118.
5 tons, an increase of 10.
7% compared with the same period last year, and overseas demand showed a good trend
.
At present, the inventory of aluminum ingots shows a slight sign of accumulation, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum is further destocked, and it is expected that the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory will first decline and then increase, or officially move towards accumulation in the second half of the year
.
In addition, Yunnan Province has cut power again due to insufficient power supply, and Henan electrolytic aluminum plant will stagger peak production to form a strong support
for the futures price.
The fundamentals entered the off-season, but did not completely turn to excess, and the overall tightness; The macro economic recovery has slowed down significantly, and it is expected that the market will enter a stage of high volatility in the near future
.