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On Thursday, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded, with the highest 19,850 yuan / ton, the lowest 19,620 yuan / ton, and the close at 19,765 yuan / ton, up 0.
08% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum was strongly volatile, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2581 / ton, up 0.
70%
from the previous session.
Market focus: (1) The number of ADP payrolls in the United States only increased by 330,000 in July, the lowest since February, far less than the expected increase of 683,000, and the previous value was 692,000
.
(2) My steel network: Due to the tight power supply in Guangxi, a 500,000 tons/year electrolytic aluminum enterprise in the region was required to reduce production, and the production scale is expected to be reduced by about
30%.
(3) As of August 5, Mysteel counted that China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 732,000 tons, down 08,000 tons from Monday (2nd), and 716,000 tons
in the same period last year.
Spot analysis, spot A00 aluminum reported 19720-19760 yuan / ton, the average price was 19740 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan
per day.
Holders generally sell at a high price, the receiving party actively seeks the source of goods, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and the transaction activity is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 90,666 tons, a daily decrease of 100 tons; LME stocks were 1,355,600 tonnes, down 7,875 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2109 contract held 150169 lots, minus 3763 lots per day, short positions 148254 lots, minus 2947 lots per day, net long positions 1915 lots, minus 258 lots
per day.
Both long and short and net long are reduced
.
Market Analysis: The US small non-farm payrolls data was less than expected, and the market was worried about the slowdown in the pace of the US economic recovery, but the market focused on the hint of a senior FED official that the Federal Reserve may cut support for improving the economy at a faster pace than widely expected, and the dollar index performed to the upside
.
Fundamentals, the power gap in the southwest region continues to expand, the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is delayed, and the current market as a whole focuses on the logic
of supply constraints.
In addition, the current aluminum ingots continue to be destocked and the social inventory continues to be low, giving strong support
to aluminum prices.
The recent risk point lies in the spread of the epidemic at home and abroad, the uncertainty of market sentiment has increased, and aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high volatility trend
.
