The main force of Shanghai aluminum has rebounded sharply, and the short-term shock is strong

Market focus: (1) The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 1.
371 million after the quarterly adjustment in August, an increase of 1.
35 million expected, and an increase of 1.
763 million in the previous value; the unemployment rate fell to 8.
4%, 9.
8% expected, and 10.
2%
in the previous month.
(2) China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in August totaled 395,400 tons, an increase of 5.
9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 15.
15%.

Spot analysis: On September 7, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14700-14740 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14720 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 250 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 126216 tons, a daily decrease of 5742 tons; On September 4, LME aluminum stocks were 1537675 tons, a daily decrease of 4,125 tons, a decline of 12 consecutive days
.
As of the week of September 4, the previous Shanghai aluminum inventory was reported 249353 tons, a weekly decrease of 1684 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contracts were 77233 lots, minus 4813 lots per day, short positions were 88708 lots, daily minus 1591 lots, net short positions were 11475 lots, daily increase of 6404 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On September 7, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2010 rebounded
sharply.
Hydro's Alunrote alumina plant reduced production, and prices recovered slightly in anticipation of reduced alumina supply; Moreover, the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, and the accumulation range during the off-season is limited; At the same time, downstream aluminum rod inventories continue to degrade, currently reaching a low level this year, coupled with signs of market demand recovery, the support for aluminum prices has been strengthened
.
However, the latest economic data released by the United States performed well, and the non-farm payrolls data was better than expected, which supported the dollar index; And the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity gradually recovered, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in some areas increased, and the supply maintained an upward trend, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, focusing on the pressure of 14700 above, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.