The main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuates widely, and it is expected that the short-term trend will be strong

Market focus: (1) CAAM: Commercial vehicle production and sales totaled 342,000 units in October, up 10.
0% m/m and 2.
5% m/m.
Year-on-year decreases were 26.
9% and 29.
7%, respectively, 8.
3 and 3.
9 percentage points
narrower than in September.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19100-19140 yuan / ton, the average price was 19120 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan
from the previous trading day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 210816 tons, daily increase of 4166 tons; LME aluminum inventory was 935,750 tons, a daily decrease of 7,375 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2201 contract 129814 lots, -5451 lots, short positions 124148 lots, -5182 lots, net long positions 5666 lots, -460 lots
.

Market research and judgment: the market increased bets on the Fed turning hawkish, and the strong operation of the US dollar index will continue to suppress
aluminum prices.
In the recent stage, the reduction of aluminum production and the resumption of production are parallel, but the reduction in production caused by power rationing and dual control of energy consumption is still greater than the resumption of production in the month, and the phenomenon of production reduction and shutdown in various production areas, Lüliang alumina enterprises will carry out peak shifting production in autumn and winter, and the supply of production areas will be disrupted
again.
At the same time, the latest data electrolytic aluminum destocked again, superimposed on the stabilization and rebound of coal prices, boosting market sentiment, and it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will be dominated by strong
shocks.