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On Monday, the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, with the highest 23240 yuan / ton, the lowest 22645 yuan / ton, and the close at 22725 yuan / ton, down 2.
01% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum fluctuated to close negative, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2891 / ton, down 1.
28%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) As of September 27, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 827,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from last Wednesday (September 22), and 662,000 tons
in the same period last year.
(2) Xinhua Finance: In September, the power shortage has further intensified
.
According to incomplete statistics, 16 provinces across the country have introduced power rationing measures
of varying intensity.
The analysis pointed out that the main reasons for the power curtailment are high coal prices and dual control of energy consumption, and it is expected that electricity consumption will remain tight in the fourth quarter, and the power rationing may increase in some areas
.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 22910-22950 yuan / ton, the average price was 22930 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders actively adjusted the price and sold the goods, the receiving party purchased low-priced goods on demand, the transaction situation was not good, and the transaction activity was quiet
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 95,851 tons, a daily decrease of 627 tons; LME stocks were 1273750 tonnes, down 7,800 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai's main 2111 contract held 172694 lots, with a daily decrease of 9585 lots, a short position of 181555 lots, a daily decrease of 5061 lots, a net short position of 8861 lots, a net long turn net short, long and short both reduced
.
Market research and judgment: domestic energy consumption dual control continues to ferment, production areas power restrictions and production restrictions impose code, some areas electrolyzer recovery still takes time, aluminum market supply continues to contract, forming a support
for aluminum prices.
However, the latest data shows that electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories have accumulated, mainly due to the limited downstream acceptance of high aluminum prices, and the limited power production and downstream demand, the overall purchase willingness is weak, resulting in an increase in inventory, and there is pressure
on aluminum prices.
Short-term aluminum prices or shock operation is the mainstay
.
