The main force of Shanghai aluminum fell and fluctuated, and the bearish atmosphere still dominates

Market Focus: (1) Fed Vice Chairman Clarida said Wednesday that policymakers "won't even start considering" raising interest rates
until inflation reaches 2 percent.
(2) Brexit negotiations resumed, the UK expressed confidence that a trade deal could be signed, and the EU expressed its determination to reach an agreement
.
(3) According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of 429464 tons of aluminum in August were the highest level in more than 11 years, an increase of 9.
8% from July, and the second consecutive month of net aluminum importers
.
(4) Japanese aluminum buyers have agreed to pay a premium of $88 per tonne of aluminum shipped in the October-December quarter, up 11%
from the quarter.

Spot analysis: On September 24, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14250-14290 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14270 yuan / ton, down 290 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that traders mainly ship, holders are reluctant to sell, downstream pre-holiday bargain stock procurement, market reception atmosphere is strong, and the overall transaction is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 102511 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1593 tons, down 8 consecutive days; On September 23, LME aluminum inventory was 1486175 tons, a daily decrease of 7,000 tons, a continuous decline of 25 days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2011 contract were 66198 lots, a daily increase of 11071 lots, short positions of 81440 lots, a daily increase of 6936 lots, a net short position of 15242 lots, a daily decrease of 4135 lots, long and short increases, and net space decreases
.

Market research and judgment: On September 24, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2011 fell and fluctuated
.
The recent lack of clarity in the speeches of Fed officials has boosted the demand for the US dollar, coupled with the rebound of the epidemic in Europe, which has put pressure on the euro, and the US dollar index has continued to be strong; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity was gradually released, coupled with the slight decline in domestic aluminum production month-on-month, which put greater pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, the market demand performance is acceptable, the willingness to stock up on the market before the holiday is high, and the inventory of the two cities is currently showing a downward trend; In addition, Japanese aluminum buyers agreed to raise the aluminum premium in the fourth quarter, indicating that the market remains optimistic about the demand outlook, and it is expected that there is limited
space below aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2011 contract increase of Shanghai aluminum fell below the lower edge of the range, and the bearish atmosphere is still dominant, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term low.